Archive for the ‘Transportation’ Category

The NLL and the DPRK alternative

Monday, May 31st, 2010

We frequently see maps of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the defacto and disputed maritime border that separates the two Koreas in the West Sea.  Recently a friend emailed me a map of the DPRK’s desired alternative maritime border–something I had never seen.  I have mapped out both borders in the image below.

nll-1-2-thumb.jpg

Click image for larger version.

The source map comes from this AEI article.

UPDATE: Evan Ramstad offers some more information in the Wall Street Journal:

Known in South Korea as the Northern Limit Line, or NLL, the border was drawn up by the United Nations after the end of the Korean War in 1953. The North has objected to the line since the early 1970s, arguing in part that the line forces its ships to take lengthy detours to international shipping lanes.

Those objections intensified in the 1990s and led to two deadly skirmishes in the area in 1999 and 2002. In 2007, leaders of the two Koreas agreed to turn the area into a “peace zone.” That agreement—vaguely worded, struck just ahead of a South Korean election by an outgoing government and never implemented—was interpreted in the North as erasing the border and in the South as keeping it.

“North Korea’s provocations near the NLL are aimed mainly to show that it doesn’t acknowledge the line,” says Kim Jang-soo, who was South Korea’s defense minister in 2007.

Officials and analysts in South Korea, backed by some in the U.S., are making connections between Kim Jong Il’s appointment early last year of his friend O Kuk Ryol to the National Defense Commission, the North’s most important state body, and an increase in statements about the disputed sea border by the North’s state media.

Mr. O led the North’s Operations Department, the umbrella group widely believed responsible for the regime’s illicit activities, including counterfeiting and drug production. The department was later merged with the military’s Reconnaissance Bureau, which includes its special forces, and is considered by outside analysts as most likely to have planned and carried out the Cheonan attack.

“O was a childhood friend of Kim Jong Il and is perhaps his closest friend today,” says Bruce Bechtol, a Korea specialist and professor at the U.S. Marines Corps Command and Staff College.

North Korea’s alleged attack on a South Korean patrol ship is part of dictator Kim Jong Il’s efforts to redraw the western sea border between the two countries, according to an increasingly held view.

The March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, which South Korea blames on a North torpedo attack, has long been seen as retribution for the heavy damage South Korea inflicted on a North Korean ship in a November naval firefight.

More broadly, intelligence analysts in Seoul and abroad believe the alleged attack is part of military muscle-flexing by Mr. Kim as he prepares to transfer power in his family’s regime to a son.

The authoritarian, closed North, having denied torpedoing the Cheonan, isn’t talking about motivations. But some specialists and intelligence analysts in South Korea and the U.S. are focusing on what they see as the driving factor in the North’s actions, a sustained effort to redraw the inter-Korean border in the Yellow Sea off the two countries’ west coast.

Known in South Korea as the Northern Limit Line, or NLL, the border was drawn up by the United Nations after the end of the Korean War in 1953. The North has objected to the line since the early 1970s, arguing in part that the line forces its ships to take lengthy detours to international shipping lanes.

Those objections intensified in the 1990s and led to two deadly skirmishes in the area in 1999 and 2002. In 2007, leaders of the two Koreas agreed to turn the area into a “peace zone.” That agreement—vaguely worded, struck just ahead of a South Korean election by an outgoing government and never implemented—was interpreted in the North as erasing the border and in the South as keeping it.

“North Korea’s provocations near the NLL are aimed mainly to show that it doesn’t acknowledge the line,” says Kim Jang-soo, who was South Korea’s defense minister in 2007.

Officials and analysts in South Korea, backed by some in the U.S., are making connections between Kim Jong Il’s appointment early last year of his friend O Kuk Ryol to the National Defense Commission, the North’s most important state body, and an increase in statements about the disputed sea border by the North’s state media.

Mr. O led the North’s Operations Department, the umbrella group widely believed responsible for the regime’s illicit activities, including counterfeiting and drug production. The department was later merged with the military’s Reconnaissance Bureau, which includes its special forces, and is considered by outside analysts as most likely to have planned and carried out the Cheonan attack.

“O was a childhood friend of Kim Jong Il and is perhaps his closest friend today,” says Bruce Bechtol, a Korea specialist and professor at the U.S. Marines Corps Command and Staff College.

Mr. Roh said it called for creating a joint fishing zone in the disputed border area. He called it the most significant accomplishment of the summit and hinted a few days later that he might bend on the NLL, saying it was “misleading” to describe it as a border.

Kim Jang-soo, then-defense minister, said in an interview that he left the summit understanding that the sea border would remain intact. He and many military and political leaders in South Korea worried that changing the line would make it easier for the North’s naval ships to reach the Southern port city of Incheon and its capital, Seoul.

In the November meeting between defense officials, “we talked a lot about common fishing areas with our North Korean counterparts,” Mr. Kim said. “But our position was that we could never agree with this area unless North Korea acknowledged the [NLL] line.”

Some critics in South Korea saw the summit and Mr. Roh’s apparent flexibility on the line as an effort to bolster support for his progressive party, which was trailing in polls two months ahead of national elections. It was a miscalculation.

The victor in the December election, current President Lee Myung-bak, in his campaign described the NLL as a “critical border that contributes to keeping peace on our land.”

After taking office in February 2008, Mr. Lee said South Korea would move forward on the 2007 summit deal and other economic aid only after North Korea took steps to end its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

After Mr. Lee’s election, there have been no further meetings on the proposed peace zone.

Read the full article here:
Korea Crisis Has Roots in Border Row
Wall Street Journal
Eavn Ramstad and Jaeyeon Woo
6/2/2010

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RoK to halt all trade with DPRK over sinking of Cheonan

Sunday, May 23rd, 2010

According to the Washington Post:

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said Monday that his country is stopping all trade and most investment with North Korea and closing its sea lanes to North Korean ships after the nation’s deadly attack on a South Korean warship.

Lee also called for a change in Pyongyang’s Stalinist regime.

The tough measures, announced in an address to his nation, were bound to ratchet up pressure on the isolated Pyongyang government and add a new flash point in U.S. relations with China.

“Fellow citizens, we have always tolerated North Korea’s brutality, time and again. We did so because we have always had a genuine longing for peace on the Korean Peninsula,” he said. “But now things are different. North Korea will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts.”

Lee then said that “no North Korean ship will be allowed to make passage through any of the shipping lanes in the waters under our control” and that “any inter-Korean trade or other cooperative activity is meaningless.”

A senior U.S. official, traveling with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in China, said the United States will back “all the steps the South Koreans are going to announce.” In an indication of the seriousness with which the Obama administration views the drama between the North and South, home to nearly 29,000 U.S. troops, he added: “We have not faced something like this in decades.” Lee apparently has ruled out military action because he does not want to trigger an all-out war.

The official said that, based on talks over the past two days, Chinese officials have not accepted the results of a South Korean investigation — backed by experts from the United States, Australia, Britain and Sweden — that implicated North Korea in the attack on the 1,200-ton Cheonan that killed 46 sailors. As such, it is unclear whether Beijing will support Lee’s measures or his call, also made in the speech, to take the issue to the U.N. Security Council.

China’s reluctance to agree with the report underscores the challenges the United States faces as it seeks to forge closer ties to Beijing. The U.S. official also noted Sunday that China and the United States still do not see eye to eye on the details of planned economic sanctions on Iran for its failure to stop its nuclear enrichment program. Of specific concern, he said, are disagreements between Beijing and Washington about how investments in Iran’s oil and gas sector will be treated. China has committed to investing more than $80 billion in Iran’s energy sector; tightened sanctions against Tehran could threaten those investments.

Tough options for China

The attack and its aftermath also threaten China’s place in the region and could force it to make an unwanted choice between South Korea and North Korea — two countries that it has handled deftly since normalizing relations with Seoul in 1992. South Korea wants China, which is a permanent member of the Security Council, to back Seoul’s call to take the Cheonan issue to the council. So does the United States, the U.S. official said.

But that could risk hurting Pyongyang, and China appears committed to maintaining the North Korean regime above all.

“For China,” the U.S. official said, “they are in uncharted waters.”

China reacted slowly to the Cheonan’s sinking, waiting almost a month before offering South Korea condolences. Then it feted North Korea’s Kim in May, apparently offering him another large package of aid, Asian diplomats said. China’s attitude has enraged South Korea.

Michael Green, a national security official during George W. Bush’s administration, said the Cheonan crisis highlights just how differently China views its security needs than the rest of the players in Northeast Asia. For years, as China worked with the United States, Russia, South Korea and Japan to try to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons programs, these differences were obscured. But the Cheonan’s sinking has changed that.

According to Yonhap, the Kaesong Industrial Zone will be spared from the chopping block:

South Korean Unification Minister Hyun In-taek said Monday that Seoul will still maintain the joint economic project in Kaesong despite the attack, but will “respond with resolute measures” to any bid by the communist neighbor to undermine the safety of its workers.

“If North Korea ignores our careful consideration to preserve the complex even under current circumstances, and subsequently threatens the safety of our citizens there, we will never tolerate any harm to our citizens,” Hyun said.

Hyun was speaking at a joint press briefing with the foreign and defense ministers following President Lee Myung-bak’s nationally televised speech condemning the North for the ship sinking.

Hyun was apparently referring to the half-year long detention of a South Korean worker in Kaesong last year amid deteriorating political ties between the countries.

Also according to Yonhap, some aid projects will be maintained:

Lee announced his government will suspend all trade and exchange programs with the North except for the Kaesong project, while maintaining minimum levels of humanitarian aid for infants and children living in the impoverished communist country.

“Under these circumstances, any inter-Korean trade or other cooperative activity is meaningless,” the president said, adding that North Korean ships will no longer be allowed to use South Korean waterways as short-cuts.

Yonhap reports:

A suspension of inter-Korean trade would deal a “direct blow” to North Korea by blocking its major source of hard currency needed to govern the reclusive and impoverished country, a Seoul think tank said Monday.

The state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI), however, noted in a report that such a move could fail to achieve its intended goal if other global powers like China do not agree, highlighting the importance of securing international cooperation.

“North Korea’s trade with the South has accounted for up to 38 percent of its total trade volume and makes up 13 percent of its gross domestic product. With the dollars obtained through inter-Korean trade, the North has expanded its businesses with China. It (the trade with the South) also helped Pyongyang to cushion any negative external risks such as sanctions by Japan, while acquiring dollars needed to govern the country,” the report said.

“If we push for a measure to suspend the trade, it could translate into a decline in its trade with China and make it tough to find other business partners as a result, dealing a direct blow to its regime by blocking it from obtaining dollars,” it added.

The report noted that a trade ban by the Seoul government would have a maximum level of impact if China follows suit, which it expects could place Pyongyang under a situation where “it has to think about its life or death.”

Currently, the North depends on South Korea and China for up to 80 percent of its external trade and 35 percent of its GDP, according to the report. Especially, China provides many strategically important materials such as oil to the North.

The report said that if China decides to support the North, it would reduce the overall impact but it will still destabilize its regime in the long term by making it heavily dependent on its closet ally and fast-emerging global economic power.

“It would weaken the regime’s principle not to depend solely on a single country even for its trade based on the so-called juche (self-reliance) doctrine. Also China’s support would prompt opening of the reclusive nation to outside, making it more difficult for the regime to keep its tight grip on domestic market and those who want and push for market opening,” the report said.

“In summary, a political choice by China would have some impact but in the end, a trade suspension with the South would cause a significant amount of pain to the country. We need to have to push for such an action with self-confidence if there is a consensus, while taking diverse efforts to persuade China over such a measure, while establishing an international cooperative framework with the United States and Japan as well,” it added.

Business Week (Bloomberg) reports on the impact of UN sanctions last year:

UN sanctions imposed on North Korea after its second nuclear test in May 2009 caused the North’s international commerce to shrink 9.7 percent last year, according to the Seoul-based Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency. Stripping out South Korea’s one-third share, China accounted for 78.5 percent of North Korea’s commerce, the agency said. North Korea, whose leader Kim visited China earlier this month, doesn’t release trade data.

The New York Times also has good coverage

The full text of President Lee’s speech can be found here.

All previous posts on the Cheonan are here.

Read full article here:
South Korea to halt all trade with North Korea over sinking of Cheonan warship
Washington Post
John Pomfret
5/24/2010

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Chinese tourist train makes first DPRK tour

Sunday, April 25th, 2010

According to the Press Trust of India:

A Chinese tourist train entered North Korea for the first time today, carrying more than 400 passengers including a group of Finnish students, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.

The train embarked on the four-day tour from the Chinese province of Liaoning under a new arrangement with North Korea expected to attract tens of thousands of tourists, the agency reported from the provincial capital Shenyang.

The first train is mostly carrying tourists from China but also includes foreigners living in China, notably the Finns, resident in Guangzhou.

The tour comes amid heightened tensions between reclusive North Korea and South Korea, as Seoul has appeared increasingly suspicious that the North was behind the sinking of one of its naval ships last month.

It also follows reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il plans to visit China soon.

Read the full story here:
Chinese tourist train makes first North Korea tour
Press Trust of India
4/25/2010

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Changchun-Pyongyang flights to begin in June

Friday, April 16th, 2010

Michael Rank

China Southern Airlines is planning flights to Pyongyang from the northeastern city of Changchun from June, a Chinese website reports.

It said flights will begin on June 20, but did not say how frequent the service will be or give any further details.

It said the Korean National Travel Company was in talks with the Jilin provincial tourism bureau about tours to North Korea from either Changchun, the provincial capital, or the border city of Yanji.

China Southern has operated Beijing-Pyongyang flights in the past does not do so at present.

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DPRK 2009, 2010 budgets

Friday, April 16th, 2010

According to KCNA:

Report on Implementation of 2009 Budget and 2010 Budget
 
Pyongyang, April 9 (KCNA) — Deputy Pak Su Gil, vice-premier and minister of Finance, delivered a report on the results of the implementation of the DPRK state budget for last year and its state budget for this year at the 2nd Session of the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly held on Friday.

According to the report, the state budget for last year was successfully implemented and, as a result, the state budgetary revenue was overfulfilled 1.7 per cent, an increase of 7 per cent over the previous year.

Ministries, national institutions, management bureaus and complexes overfulfilled the national plans for budgetary revenue and all provinces, cities and counties across the country also overfulfilled their plans for local budgetary revenue.

Last year’s plan for state budgetary expenditure was carried out at 99.8 per cent.

An investment from the state budget was focused on the development of metal industry while a huge financial allocation was made for the power and coal industries and the railway transport.

8.6 per cent more funds than the previous year were spent for capital construction and expenditure was increased for agriculture and light industry.

A 7.2 per cent greater financial disbursement than the previous year was made for the field of science and technology, surpassing the level of the latest science and technology in domains of space technology, nuclear technology and CNC technology and putting the key industries of the national economy on a high scientific and technological basis.

A large amount of fund went to the field of cultural construction and 15.8 per cent of the total state budgetary expenditure was spent for national defence.

The reporter said that the scale of revenue and expenditure in the state budget for this year has been set on the principle of improving the people’s standard of living to meet the requirements of the policy of the Workers’ Party of Korea on conducting a great offensive to bring about a decisive turn in the above-said work.

This year’s plan for state budgetary revenue is expected to grow 6.3 per cent over last year. The revenue from the profits of state enterprises, the main source of state budgetary revenue, is expected to go up 7.7 per cent over last year, that from the profits of cooperative organizations 4.2 per cent, that from the fixed asset depreciation 2.5 per cent, that from real estate rent 2 per cent and that from social insurance 1.9 per cent.

This year’s plan for state budgetary expenditure is expected to show an 8.3 per cent increase over last year.

The spending for the light industry is expected to go up 10.1 per cent, that for agriculture 9.4 per cent and that for metal, power and coal industries and railway transport 7.3 per cent as compared with last year.

The expenditure for the machine-building industry is expected to go up and an 8.5 per cent bigger financial allocation will be made for scientific researches and the introduction of new technologies.

A 6.2 per cent bigger financial disbursement than last year is expected to be made to more successfully enforce the popular policies, a proof of the advantages of Korean-style socialism centered on the popular masses.

15.8 per cent of the total state budgetary expenditure for this year is expected to be spent for national defence.

It is expected that a large amount of educational aid fund and stipends will be sent for the children of Koreans in Japan this year, too.

In order to successfully implement this year’s state budget, all domains and units of the national economy should work out enterprising and realistic business strategy and management strategy and tenaciously carry them out by relying on a high degree of mental power of the producer masses and thus fulfill the plans for budgetary revenue without fail, stressed the reporter.

And according to the Choson Ilbo:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il can freely dispose of 20 percent of his country’s budget, a former secretary of North Korean Workers’ Party has said that. Hwang Jang-yop told the Asahi Shimbun, “Only 30 percent of the budget is spent on public services, while 50 percent is earmarked for military spending.” Hwang defected to South Korea in 1997.

Hwang was interviewed by the daily during his visit to Japan on April 4-8. “Kim Jong-il’s dictatorship is 10 times worse than his father’s. People have a painful life,” he said.

Asked if the North is likely to abandon its nuclear weapons program, he said, “There is no such possibility. But the North won’t use the weapons. They’re a means to maintain the regime.”

To the question why Kim’s eldest son Jong-nam was passed over for the succession, he said, “At first, Kim Jong-il thought of choosing his eldest son as his successor. But he seems to have changed his mind as he fell in love with Ko Young-hee, the mother of Jong-un, his third son, after Jong-nam’s mother Song Hye-rim died.”

Commenting on the North’s bizarre abductions of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 80s, he said, “The North needed native Japanese to train agents who would work in Japan.”

Read the full story here:
Kim Jong-il ‘Gets 20% of N.Korea’s Budget for His Own Use’
Choson Ilbo
4/12/2010

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DPRK imports hundreds of cars in last week

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

A North Korean source saw around 30 identical vehicles crossing the bridge across the Apnok (or Yalu) River into Sinuiju at around 9 a.m. The vehicles were the Chinese compact sedan F3 manufactured by BYD, referred to as the “people’s car” in China due to its popularity. Around 100 cars reportedly crossed the border into North Korea on Tuesday alone. Starting last week, North Korea brought in more than 200 cars, including luxury foreign cars, jeeps and large vans. The total value of the imported cars is believed to be around US$5 million.

The North Korean regime often seeks to ensure the loyalty of senior officials by handing out the latest foreign-made cars on Kim Il-sung’s or Kim Jong-il’s birthday, but the Chinese-made cars imported this time are believed to be gifts for the middle ranks. “To my knowledge, the latest cars are gifts for mid-level officials at North Korea’s prosecution and state security agency and have been allocated to specific people in different regions,” the source said.

North Korea watchers believe the cars were bought to boost the morale of such officials, who were hit hard by the botched currency reform in December. “Failing to take care of mid-ranking officials could jeopardize the transfer of power to Kim Jong-il’s third son Jong-un,” said one North Korea expert. “The purpose of the gifts is to appease discontent.”

Judging from the pictures, it looks like the cars were driven across the Sinuiju/Dandong Sino-DPRK Friendship Bridge.  Satellite image here

So it appears the Kim Jong il uses automobiles in the same way foreign governments use international aid in North Korea–to “purchase” influence and support.  If the strategy works on a domestic level (within the DPRK), why does it have so much trouble on an international level?  Feel free to discuss.   

Read the full story here:
Kim Jong-il Imports Hundreds of Cars for Loyal Officials
Choson Ilbo
4/14/2010

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DPRK acquires new Tupolev

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Hat tip to a reader:

The Russian website Аргументы и факты reported that at a ceremony in the Russian city of Ulyanovsk on March 4th the Russian company Aviastar-CP handed over a new Tu-204-100B airplane to a delegation from Air Koryo.  Also present was a team representing the “Ilyushin Finance Leasing Company” through which the plane was handed over to the Korean airline. The report relates that, “Late at night, the aircraft took off for the flight to Pyongyang from Ulyanovsk’s Vostochnyy Airport.”  It also states that this is the second “new-generation” Russian aircraft delivered to the DPRK by Aviastar.  It is expected to operate on routes between the DPRK and Russia and Southeast Asia as well as within the DPRK.

Here is the story in Russian.

Here is the story in English via Google Translate.

Here is a photo of the first Air Koryo Tupolev that went into service on May 1, 2008.

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Jin Hualin, Yanbian University, on Chinese investment in DPRK.

Sunday, April 4th, 2010

Jin Hualin, dean of the College of Economics and Management at Yanbian University, talks about Chinese investment in Rason in China’s Global Times.  Here is an excerpt:

GT: If China does continue to rent Rajin harbor for another 10 years, what will the effects be?

Jin: China has reached an agreement to rent a pier at Rajin Port for another decade. A Dalian-based Chinese company has invested 26 million yuan ($3.8 million) in the reconstruction of Rajin Port No.1 Pier. Park also said that China may enjoy more favorable conditions there, such as more berths.

I think Chinese companies’ participation is good for promoting the North Korean economy and building logistical infrastructure in the area, which is beneficial to China, North Korea and the Northeast Asian countries.

When the Sino-Mongolia route is finished, raw materials and natural resources from Mongolia can be shipped to Japan and South Korea via Rajin harbor, and then China’s northeastern regions and North Korea can both benefit.

GT: What should China do to promote Northeast Asian cooperation and devel-opment?

Jin: I suggest Chinese governments at all levels consider the following issues. They should accelerate trade and tourism and build cooperation on logistics, and support Chinese companies going global and investing in North Korea.

Actually, China now has many companies capable of investing abroad. The point is foreign countries’ investment environment.

We should strengthen cooperation on education with North Korean universities and colleges, sending students to study there and exploring research in new areas together.

We can also strengthen regional cooperation. We can designate China’s Hunchun city and North Korea’s Rason city as pilot cities and permit China’s commercial banks to open yuan-based accounts in Rason’s commercial banks.

Relations between Northeast Asian countries are subtle and complicated because of geopolitical contradictions, different political systems, the influence of the Cold War, historical issues, territorial disputes and sentiments caused by historical and territorial issues.

Mutual distrust fundamentally hinders cooperation. China needs to take the responsibility to promote regional cooperation and make it institutionalized and legally guaranteed as soon as possible.

GT: How do you evaluate the political and economic risks for Chinese companies going into North Korea? What advantages do Chinese companies have?

Jin: There are always political and economic risks involved in trade between different countries. The first major solution is to establish a mutual investment guarantee agreement, so that the two countries’ economic cooperation will be protected legally.

We hope that North Korea can keep the stability and consistency of its policies and issue development policies that is in line with international conventions. As long as North Korea adopts consistent policies, Chinese companies won’t encounter great political and economic risks there.

China and North Korea are believed to enjoy good mutual trust. China has experience from its reform and opening-up and plenty of investment capability. North Korea has a good educational foundation, low labor costs, and rich natural resources.

Chinese companies are active participants in investing in North Korea and I believe they’ll do well there.

Read the full interview here. Hat tip to Adam.

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DPRK ships (3)* Vs. Somali Pirates (2)

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

(* = assist from the US Navy)

According to Sapa-AFP (via iol.com of South Africa):

Heavily armed Somali pirates shot and wounded nine seafarers during a bloody attempt to hijack a North Korean cargo ship off Kenya on Wednesday, a maritime watchdog said.

“There was a very violent attack against a North Korean vessel by Somali pirates who used automatic rifles and RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades),” Pottengal Mukundan, director of the London based International Maritime Bureau (IMB) told AFP.

“Nine crew members have been seriously injured as a result of the attack,” he added.

Mukundan said Somali pirates, who have become a serious hazard for shipping in the region, attacked the ship which was heading to Mombasa.

“Despite coming under heavy attack, the pirates were unable to board the ship,” he said.

Mukundan said IMB had relayed news of the attack to the relevant authorities to provide assistance to the crew.

Urging seafarers to remain alert, he said pirates were shifting their attacks against ships “well south of the previous areas of risk, threatening the trade route into Mombasa and Dar es Salaam.”

“The level of violence has increased against ships. We call on the navies to continue robust action against mother ships when the mother ships are located,” he said.

Somali pirates have expanded from the Gulf of Aden into the open seas of the Indian Ocean, venturing as far as the Seychelles and beyond.

Despite the increased international military presence off Somalia’s coastline – the longest on the African continent – pirates have raked in huge ransoms.

Alongside the EU, the United States and other national navies deployed warships off the Somali coast in December 2008 to protect shipping and secure maritime routes in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

Read past stories about Somali Pirates and the DPRK here:
DPRK Merchants (2)* Vs. Somali Pirates (2)

DPRK Merchants (2)* Vs. Somali Pirates (1)

DPRK Merchants (1)* vs. Somali Pirates (1)

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Ryongchon explosion revisited

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

UPDATE 2 (2011-9-8): According to the Donga Ilbo:

Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun, who met North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang in 2007, is known to have said Kim believes the 2004 train station explosion in the North Korean town of Ryongchon was an attempt to assassinate him.

According to a diplomatic report released recently by WikiLeaks, Hyun told U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens in 2009, “Kim believed that the explosion at Ryongchon Station was a failed attempt to assassinate him, and the (North Korean) People’s Army became his most trusted group after the incident.”

Hyun was quoted as saying, “After the time when his train was to pass Ryongchon Station was revealed through mobile phones, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il believed that the explosion occurred when his train almost reached the station, and after the incident, the introduction of mobile phones in the North was markedly delayed.”

According to the report, the chairman said, “Kim Jong Il fears assassination and a coup the most. He was not an irrational person in the past, but I feel he has changed recently in certain aspects.”

UPDATE 1 (2010-3-23): Adam Cathcart tracks down the original Chinese source and offers a translation:

Curtis, I believe the original source is an article in the Chongqing (Sichuan, PRC) Evening News.  I’ll include the relevant Chinese text in two separate blocks and then translate it:

2004年4月22日中午时分,朝鲜平安北道龙川郡发生了一起严重的火车爆炸事故,导致近200人死亡,1500多人受伤,另有8000多幢房屋被毁。有分析认为,这次造成灾难性后果的朝鲜火车爆炸案,是一次针对朝鲜领导人金正日的暗杀企图。4月22日龙川爆炸事故时,有线索表明不良分子使用了手机,唯恐内部情报外泄,所以手机业务被停了。

On April 22, 2004, around noon, the story is that in North Korea’s North Pyong’an Province, Ryongchon County, a serious train explosion caused the deaths of nearly 200 people and injured more than 1,500 people, while more than 8000 homes were destroyed.

Some analysts believe that the catastrophic consequences of this North Korean train explosion followed from a attempted plan to target North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il for assassination.

At the time of the April 22 Ryongchon explosion, clues collected along the tracks indicated that unhealthy elements had used mobile phones. For fear that internal information would leak [to the outside], the mobile phone business would be stopped.

[Note: The last sentence is pretty interesting; the phrase used is “唯恐” which means “for fear that,” but it can also lead into the idiomatic expression 唯恐天下不乱 which means “in order that all under Heaven remain unchaotic,” which seems to be a tactful dynastic-type allusion to the idea that the DPRK could ignite whenever.]

停止移动电话服务举措的命令由朝鲜国防委员会直接下达,特别是在权力机关或特殊行业就职的人员使用手机受到了严格的限制,原先持有的手机也被没收。朝鲜在境内全面禁止使用手机之后,花大笔钱购置手机的居民大为不满,因为1台手机机身和入网费共约1300美元,在一夜之间就成了废品。

The order to stop mobile phone services came down directly from the [North] Korean National Defense Committee, particularly [stating] that the authority/rights of those in special business sectors to use mobile phones was [henceforth] strictly limited and that previously held mobile phones [should be] confiscated.

After North Korea totally banned mobile phone use within its borders, many residents/citizens, having spent big money (about 1300 USD for everything including accessories and network access fees) to purchase mobile phones, became dissatisfied due to the fact that their cell phones had been rendered into scrap overnight.

[As a side note, I wonder why this news is leaking out of the PRC at a time when Kim Jong Il is said to be mulling over a return trip to China, which would almost certainly be taken by train (through the same station?). It’s a bit mystifying. But then again, Chinese readers probably have more sympathy for North Korea’s striving elites than is often acknowledged and Xinhua, perhaps, puts this story out as a gentle reminder (at a time when people are getting arrested for downloading “unharmonious content” onto their mobile phones) that life in the PRC could be much, much worse. Just my two cents — hope this helps, and thanks for the post.]

ORIGINAL POST (3/22/2010): According to the Donga Ilbo:

A 2004 explosion at a railway station in North Korea was an attempt to assassinate leader Kim Jong Il, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency quoted an analysis as saying yesterday.

“The train explosion at Ryongchon Station in North Pyongan Province on April 22 that year killed nearly 200 people, injured more than 1,500, and destroyed more than 8,000 homes. The explosion is believed to have been an attempt to assassinate Kim,” Xinhua said.

Though Xinhua quoted an analysis, it is quite unusual for the news agency to say the explosion was an assassination attempt on Kim. Xinhua mentioned the incident while reporting on mobile phone use in North Korea.

The report said the number of mobile phone users in North Korea surged to 20,000 a year after mobile telecom service was launched in November 2002. Pyongyang, however, banned the use of mobile phones following the explosion.

Xinhua said the ban was imposed directly by the National Defense Commission, North Korea’s highest-ranking body, due to fears over the leak of news on the explosion outside of the communist country.

In the early days of mobile phone use, only officials at the people’s committee of the ruling Workers’ Party and the ministries of public safety, national security and defense could use them. After the explosion, however, as many as 10,000 mobile handsets were seized by authorities.

The cost of a mobile handset and registration was as high as 1,300 U.S. dollars when the greenback was traded at 1,200 to 1,300 North Korean won, equal to more than 600 months of monthly wages for the average North Korean worker (2.20 dollars).

In the face of mounting complaints over the ban, North Korean authorities re-allowed the use of mobile phones in March last year.

An estimated 120,000 North Koreans use mobile telecom service. Considering North Korea’s population of an estimated 24 million as of 2008, this translates into one handset per 200 people.

Xinhua added that mobile phones have brought about many changes in the lives of North Koreans.

I am taking this with a grain of salt until I find the source.  I post it here so you can judge for yourself.

Here are before/after images of the Ryongchon explosion.

Read the full srticle here:
“2004 Explosion Was Attempt on Kim Jong Il`s Life”
Donga Ilbo
3/22/2010

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