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ROK estimates of DPRK military

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

According to Yonhap:

North Korea is believed to have about 200,000 special warfare troops, an 11 percent increase from two years earlier, according to a South Korean government estimate released Sunday.

The North is also believed to have some 1,000 ballistic missiles, about 2,500-5,000 tons of chemical weapons agents, about 700 pieces of long-range artillery and about 600-700 computer hacking specialists, according to a defense ministry report submitted to Rep. Kim Ock-lee of the ruling Grand National Party.

South Korea had estimated the size of the North’s special warfare troops at 120,000 in the 2006 defense “white paper” report and 180,000 in the 2008 report.

The North’s bolstering of its special warfare capabilities means that the country intends to send such troops deep into South Korea to conduct a variety of attacks in case of conflicts, a defense ministry official said on condition of anonymity.

South Korea also estimates that the North has about 700 Scud B and C missiles with ranges between 300-500 kilometers and about 200 Rodong missiles with a range of about 1,300 kilometers, according to the ministry report released by the lawmaker.

In addition, the North is believed to have deployed a longer-range intermediate ballistic missile that can fly as far as 3,000 kilometers, the report said.

It also said that the North is believed to have about 600-700 computer hacking experts for cyber attacks on South Korea.

Additional resources on the North Korean military can be found here.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea believed to have 200,000 special warfare troops: S. Korean estimate
Yonhap
10/10/10

Posted in Korean People's Army, Military | Comments Closed

DPRK unveils new missiles in parade

Sunday, October 10th, 2010

UPDATE 3: NKnews.org offers a description of both missiles.

UPDATE 2 (DPRK-Iran cooperation): Arms Control Wonk has more on DPRK-Iran cooperation. The picture below would probably make Ruhollah Khomeini spin in his grave:

UPDATE 1 (Nodong Missile): Arms Control Wonk has more on a second Nodong missile that has some Iranian influences.

Aviation Week also offers a good summary:

North Korea’s weaponry is showing design characteristics associated with the Shahab 3, Iran’s most advanced missile. Such evidence is leading some international analysts to the conclusion that the ballistic missile development ties between the two countries are active and producing improvements in the arsenals of both.

While it would seem doubtful that complete missiles or missile sections are being shipped — given the close scrutiny by the West of North Korea shipping — components and engineering data could move relatively easily by air and diplomatic pouch.

For years, Iran has been the junior partner in the relationship and used the conduit to acquire No-dong and other missile technologies to build its own systems. Now, Israeli officials have noted the first public emergence in North Korea of the BM-25 Musudan, a weapon they believe has already been supplied to Iran.

It is believed to the first time the road-mobile, liquid-fueled, intermediate-range ballistic missile has been shown to anyone outside the North Korean military. The public unveiling took place Oct. 10 during a military parade attended by the country’s leader, Kim Jong-il, and his son and apparent leader-designate, Kim Jong-un.

The BM-25 is a derivative of the Russian-designed, SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile, although it has been increased in length to add range. North Korea showed several of the missile and wheeled launchers during the parade, although the operational status remains uncertain owing to a lack of flight trials detected by outside observers.

The parade also showcased a No-dong ballistic missile with a tri-conic nosecone. That configuration is typically associated with Iran’s Shahab-3, causing some analysts to suggest technical information gleaned by Tehran in flight trials is being fed to Pyongyang. Such a move would suggest Iran has made considerable progress in developing its indigenous missile engineering expertise.

The latest Iranian ballistic missile developments indicate the missiles “are much more sophisticated and reliable than the [early] Scud designs,” says Arieh Herzog, director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization. “The inertial navigation systems are better and improved guidance in the final phase makes some of them accurate to without about 100 meters.”

The migration of the BM-25 to Iran has major security implications for Europe, since it would give Tehran the ability to strike targets in southern Europe. For Israel, the introduction of the BM-25 would have relatively modest impact on its strategic calculation, since Iran already has the ability to strike Israeli cities with ballistic missiles, but it would allow Iran to disperse its launchers over a much larger area in the eastern part of the country.

ORIGINAL POST (Musudan Missile): Although Kim Jong-un stole the headlines at at the military parade, the North Korean military also reportedly paraded several new missiles. According to the AP:

Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported Sunday that the parade included three never-before-shown types of missiles and launching devices.

One was thought to be a new “Musudan” intermediate-range ballistic missile with a long, narrow head, similar to a ball-point pen, NHK said. It has a range of 3,000-to-5,000 kilometers (1,860-to-3,100 miles) and would be capable of hitting Japan and Guam, NHK said.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry said it could not immediately comment on the report. Call to South Korea’s top spy agency seeking comment went unanswered on Sunday.

Arms Control Wonk has much more.

The Choson Ilbo follows up.

Here are lots of great pictures from a Chinese site.

NTI Global Security follows up:

North Korea was reported to have unveiled three previously unseen ballistic missiles and launching apparatus during a major armed forces parade Sunday, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, March 17).

One new missile was believed to be a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can travel 1,860 miles to 3,100 miles and could reach Guam and Japan, according to Japanese television channel NHK.

Missiles were prominently displayed at the parade with the words “Defeat the U.S. Military. U.S. soldiers are the Korean People’s Army’s enemy” written on them.

“If the U.S. imperialists and their followers infringe on our sovereignty and dignity even slightly, we will blow up the stronghold of their aggression with a merciless and righteous retaliatory strike by mobilizing all physical means, including self-defensive nuclear deterrent force,” North Korean army General Staff chief Ri Yong Ho said at the parade.

South Korean defense and intelligence officials did not offer comments on the report (Jean Lee, Associated Press/Google News, Oct. 10).

The Musudan is not known to have yet been launched in a test flight, proliferation analyst Joshua Pollack said on the website Arms Control Wonk. He cited the weapon’s flight range at roughly 1,550 miles to 1,860 miles. The missile is said to be based on the Soviet submarine-launched R-27, which is notably shorter in length than the Musudan.

The North Korean missile was initially unveiled in a 2007 armed forces parade; however, that event was closed to international media, the Chosun Ilbo reported. The South Korean newspaper reported the Musudan had a range of about 1,860 to 2,490 miles.

Evidently, some 12 Musudan missiles are fielded at missile installations in the North Hamgyong and South Pyongan provinces. The system can reportedly travel further than any other weapon in the North’s arsenal, including the Rodong missile with an 810-mile range, the newspaper reported.

“We’re looking at a new missile,” Pollack stated. “The lack of a known testing record prior to deployment raises all sorts of questions. Was it tested in another country, for example?” (Joshua Pollack, Arms Control Wonk I, Oct. 10).

The outside world also saw for the first time Sunday a new version of the medium-range Nodong ballistic missile, which was outfitted with what appeared to be a “separating re-entry vehicle,” Pollack noted.

“The question naturally arises: how long have the North Koreans had weapons of this type?” he wrote.

South Korean and U.S. news organizations initially began reporting on the Musudan missile in 2003, “so it’s certainly possible for Pyongyang to sit on these developments for years, if they wish,” he wrote.

The targeting precision of North Korean theater-range missiles such as the Nodong has been reported to have increased since July 2006 missile tests. The separating re-entry vehicle on the Nodong could explain some of that improved accuracy, Pollack stated.

Pollack indicated that details remain unclear regarding the third weapons system cited in the AP article (Joshua Pollack, Arms Control Wonk II, Oct. 10).

Read the full AP story here:
NKorea’s Kim, heir apparent son at lavish parade
Associate Press
10/9/2010

Posted in Iran, Manufacturing, Military | Comments Closed

KPA units 851 and 681 in Wonsan?

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Two days ago, Kim Jong-un attended a live fire drill with Kim Jong-il. The drill was carried out by KPA Unit 851. The pictures released by the North Koreans seem to indicate that the drill was carried out at the Wonsan AFB (satellite image here):

Click image for larger version (KCNA).

In February 2009 Kim Jong-il attended a live-fire exercise in this same location, except the drill was carried out by KPA Unit 681. See a previous post about this here. It could be that they are the same unit and the name is changed, or it could be that the units have changed location, or it could be that two (or more) units are stationed at this base, or it could be that this is simply a test facility and all units come here to practice. I am not a military expert, so I am not going to spend much time trying to figure it out.

Hat tip to a reader.

Posted in Google Earth, Military | 3 Comments »

Bermudez publishes KPA Journal No. 1, Vol. 9

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Joseph Bermudez, military analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review and author of The Armed Forces of North Korea, has published the ninth issue of his very fascinating KPA Journal.

Click here to download the full issue (PDF).

Topics include: Mi-2 Hoplite helicopter, KPA Lessons Learned, Vice Marchal Jo Myong-rok, and Vice Marshal Yi Tu-ik (Biographies by Mike Madden)

You can find all of the previous issues of KPA Journal here.

Posted in Military | 2 Comments »

Ship departing from DPRK intercepted in Greece

Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

According to Kathimerini:

Authorities in Piraeus today were to continue their inspection of a German-flagged French-owned vessel that had been en route to Syria from North Korea with a cargo believed to comprise banned weapons.

Following a tip-off from another country, which was not identified, Greek authorities intercepted the vessel and ordered its mooring at the port of Piraeus so checks could be carried out. Coast guard officers, military experts and members of the National Intelligence Service (EYP) participated in the inspection, which did not result in the discovery of any weapons but did turn up a large quantity of what a government source yesterday described as “nonmilitary material that could have a dual use.” This material reportedly included pieces of metal and pipes that could be used in the construction of missile launchers.

The United Nations Security Council agreed in June last year to ban the export of all weapons from North Korea.

According to Reuters:

The expanded sanctions were aimed at cutting off its arms sales, a vital export estimated to earn it more than $1 billion a year.

North Korea’s biggest weapons sales come from ballistic missiles, with Iran and other Middle Eastern states as customers, according to U.S. government officials.

Read the full stories here:
Ship checked for weapons
Kathimerini
9/29/2010

Greece searches ship for North Korean arms – source
Reuters
9/28/2010

Posted in International trade, Military, Sea shipping, Transportation, UN Security Council | Comments Closed

Kim Jong-un named to KPA and KWP-CC, and Central Military Commission

Monday, September 27th, 2010

UPDATE 4: Photos of the aspiring leader have been made public. Daylife.com has all of them here.

UPDATE 3: Just for fun…there appears to be at least one other “Kim Jong-un” in North Korea. It will be interesting to see if he has to change his name (if he is still alive)! Here is a KCNA story from April 23, 1997:

Press review
Pyongyang, April 23 (KCNA) — Papers here today frontpage reports that Secretary Kim Jong Il sent thanks and gifts to workteam members of the no. 7 excavator operating in Kumsan pit in Ryongyang mine for their collective innovation and thanks to servicemen and their families for setting examples in army-people relations. Reported in the press is the news that a monument to on-site guidance of Secretary Kim Jong Il, Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army, was erected at the unit that defends Cho Islet, a forward military post on the West Sea of Korea. Rodong Sinmun carries a letter sent to Secretary Kim Jong Il by participants in the meeting of senior officials of progressive parties of different countries held in Moscow to mark the 85th birth anniversary of President Kim Il Sung as well as a statement adopted at the meeting. Minju Joson comes out with an article headlined “Our General always stands on Height 1211”. Conspicuous in Rodong Sinmun is an article titled “devotedly defending headquarters of revolution is foremost mission of people’s army”. The paper gives nearly one whole page to the lyric epic “Supreme Commander and his vanguard soldiers” which is dedicated to heroic soldiers. The Swedish Government decided to take a humanitarian measure for Korea, the press reports. Rodong Sinmun runs an article “Korean-style socialism is the best”, written by Kim Jong Un, who came over to the northern half of Korea while serving in the south Korean puppet army. Papers comment on the disclosure of Kim Young Sam’s bid to conceal the truth as regards the “investigation” into the Hanbo incident. An article of Rodong Sinmun says that the south Korea-stationed U.S. forces’ possession of depleted uranium bullets proves that their moves for war reached an extremely grave phase. Seen in Minju Joson is an article on the triangular military tieup of the U.S. and Japanese reactionaries and the south Korean puppets.

UPDATE 2: Kim Jong-un was also named to the Central Committee of the Korean Worker’s Party. According to KCNA:

Members and Alternate Members of WPK Central Committee
Pyongyang, September 28 (KCNA) — The following are members of the WPK Central Committee: Kim Jong Il, Kang Nung Su, Kang Tong Yun, Kang Sok Ju, Kang Phyo Yong, Kang Yang Mo, Ko Pyong Hyon, Kim Kuk Thae, Kim Kyong Hui, Kim Kyong Ok, Kim Ki Nam, Kim Ki Ryong, Kim Rak Hui, Kim Myong Guk, Kim Pyong Ryul, Kim Pyong Ho, Kim Song Dok, Kim Song Chol, Kim Jong Gak, Kim Jong Suk, Kim Jong Un, …

Mike has a good summary here.

UPDATE 1: Kim Jong-un has been named to the KWP Central Military Comission. Kim Kyong-hui has joined th According to Bloomberg:

Kim Jong Un was elected one of two Central Military Commission vice chairmen at a Worker’s Party of Korea meeting yesterday, a day after he was made a four-star general, the official Korean Central News Agency said. He also joined the party’s Central Committee, though not the more elite Politburo, at a meeting yesterday. His father’s sister, Kim Kyong Hui, was given several high-ranking posts, including politburo membership, KCNA reported.

The Kim family’s tightening grip on the military and party hierarchy underscores the challenge of transferring power to a son who had never before been mentioned in a KCNA dispatch. Kim Jong Un faces an increasingly disgruntled public in an economy squeezed by United Nations sanctions targeted at its weapons programs and a bungled currency revaluation.

“Even Kim Jong Il must be wary of public criticism should his son fail to improve economic conditions,” Paik Hak Soon, director of inter-Korean relations at the Seongnam, South Korea- based Sejong Institute, said before the commission appointment. “Domestic political stability will be Kim Jong Un’s key focus.”

Kim Jong Il, 68, was re-elected as party chief, general secretary and chairman of the military commission, KCNA said.

…

China’s President Hu Jintao congratulated Kim Jong Il on his re-election, pledging to strengthen ties with his country’s communist neighbor “to a higher level,” the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported today, without mentioning the son. Kim Jong Il made an unprecedented two trips to China this year, prompting speculation he was seeking endorsement of the power transfer from his nation’s main political and economic ally.

Here is the original KCNA story:

Central Military Commission Organized
Pyongyang, September 28 (KCNA) — The Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea is as follows:

Chairman Kim Jong Il, Vice-Chairmen Kim Jong Un and Ri Yong Ho and Members Kim Yong Chun, Kim Jong Gak, Kim Myong Guk, Kim Kyong Ok, Kim Won Hong, Jong Myong Do, Ri Pyong Chol, Choe Pu Il, Kim Yong Chol, Yun Jong Rin, Ju Kyu Chang, Choe Sang Ryo, Choe Kyong Song, U Tong Chuk, Choe Ryong Hae and Jang Song Thaek.

ORIGINAL POST: Kim Jong-un and Kim Kyong Hui named 4-star generals in KPA. According to Yonhap:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has made his third son a military general in the clearest signal yet that Kim Jong-un is on track to becoming the next leader of the nuclear-armed communist state.

The promotion was announced early Tuesday through the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), just hours before North Korea was to hold its biggest political convention in three decades.

At the conference drawing top Workers’ Party delegates from across the nation, Kim Jong-un, whose name has never been mentioned in public and believed to be no older than 28, could be given other political posts, including one with the Politburo.

The KCNA report said Kim Kyoung-hui, the 64-year-old sister of Kim Jong-il, has also been promoted to a four-star general along with Choe Ryong-hae, a long-time aide to the Kim dynasty.

Kim Kyoung-hui, who oversees the country’s light industries, has recently emerged as a possible caretaker for a hereditary power transfer because Kim Jong-un lacks experience and support.

Her name was mentioned before Kim Jong-un’s in the KCNA dispatch.

Kim Jong-il, 68, is widely believed to have suffered a stroke in the summer of 2008 and since tried to make his third son his successor in what could be the communist world’s first back-to-back father-to-son power transfer. Kim took over the regime when his father and North Korean founder Kim Il-sung died in 1994.

Kim Jong-il officially became successor to his father in a Workers’ Party gathering in 1980. In a directive numbered 0051, Kim named a total of 39 generals on Monday, the KCNA said. Six of them, including Kim Jong-un and Kim Kyoung-hui, were four-star generals.

“The appointment clears the way for Kim Jong-un to forge deeper ties with power elites,” a South Korean Unification Ministry official said on the condition of anonymity.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in a briefing in New York that his country is “watching developments in North Korea carefully.”

“North Korea has now made it official,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said. “It is certain that Kim Jong-un will be named to a high-level Workers’ Party post in the upcoming convention.”

The KCNA said Kim Jong-il “firmly believes that the commanding members of the People’s Army will continue to support the leadership of the party and complete the revolutionary exploit that was first begun in Mt. Paekdu,” which symbolizes the Kim dynasty.

In a separate dispatch, the KCNA said Ri Yong-ho, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army, was promoted to the rank of vice marshal in a possible sweetener for the military class, whose support is crucial for Kim Jong-un to solidify his power.

Kim Jong-un was educated in Switzerland during his teens and is believed to resemble his father in appearance and personality. He has been shrouded in secrecy, and photos of him are extremely rare.

It remains to be seen whether the North’s official television media will unveil Kim Jong-un in its footage of the Workers’ Party convention on Tuesday.

“For one thing, blood is stressed much more in North Korea as something that defines character,” Brian Myers, a professor of international studies at Dongseo University in Busan, said in comments e-mailed earlier. “In a culture where myth and charisma are so important, the masses need a hero figure in the ‘glorious Paekdu tradition,’ not a faceless bureaucrat or a group of army officers.”

So there are several “big” stories in KCNA today. Kim Jong-un’s (son of KJI) and Kim Kyong Hui’s (sister of KJI) promotion to KPA general and Kim Jong-il’s “re-election” as general secretary of the Worker’s party. Here are the stories:

Kim Jong Il Issues Order on Promoting Military Ranks

Pyongyang, September 27 (KCNA) — General Secretary Kim Jong Il on Monday issued Order No. 0051 on promoting the military ranks of commanding officers of the KPA.

He said in his order that all the servicepersons of the People’s Army and people are now significantly celebrating the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea with unbounded reverence for President Kim Il Sung who made a new history of building a revolutionary party in the era of independence and strengthened and developed the WPK into vanguard ranks of revolution with high prestige and invincible might.

He stressed that the WPK born from the deep and strong roots struck in the anti-Japanese revolution has honorably discharged its mission and duty as a political staff of the Korean revolution since the very day of its founding and performed immortal exploits to shine long in the history of the country.

The KPA is demonstrating its might before the world as a powerful revolutionary army of Mt. Paektu after growing to be a strong army of the leader and the party, devotedly defending the headquarters of the revolution with arms and performing heroic feats to shine long in history in the defence of the country and building of a thriving socialist nation, he noted.

Expressing the firm belief that the commanding officers of the KPA who have grown up under the care of the party and the leader would creditably discharge their honorable missions and duties as the mainstay and main force of the revolution in accomplishing with arms the revolutionary cause of Juche which started in Mt. Paektu, remaining true to the Party’s leadership in the future, too, he issued an order on promoting the military ranks of KPA commanding officers on the occasion of the 65th anniversary of the glorious Workers’ Party of Korea.

It is noted in the order that the military ranks of Kim Kyong Hui, Kim Jong Un and Choe Ryong Hae and three others are promoted to general, the military rank of Ryu Kyong to colonel general, the military ranks of Ro Hung Se and Ri Tu Song and four others to lieutenant general and those of Jo Kyong Jun, Jang To Yong and Mun Jong Chol and 24 others to major general.

Here is the story about Kim Jong-il’s re-election as general secretary.

Additional Information:
1. Here is coverage in the Washington Post.

2. Here is coverage in the New York Times.

3. Here is an article in the Taipei Times on Kim Kyong Hui (Kim Jong-il’s sister).

4. Here is a post about the first known (in the West) official mention of Kim Jong-un’s name in the DPRK–not in the official media.

5. Here is information from Bradley Martin and Mike (NK Leadership Watch) on Choe Hyong-rae.

6. According to the Daily NK, North Koreans were not at all surprised by the announcement.

7. The Daily NK has information on Ri Yong-ho.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean leader names his youngest son as general
Yonhap
Sam Kim
9/28/2010

Posted in Central Committee, Central Miltary Committee, Kim Jong Un, Military, Political economy, Uncategorized, Worker's Party | 2 Comments »

Myanmar-DPRK collaboration

Monday, September 27th, 2010

There is an interesting article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:

Article Highlights
1. The idea that North Korea and Myanmar are collaborating on a nuclear weapons programs represents only one possible scenario among several that deserve closer examination.

2. Myanmar’s goal might be to improve its missile program or trade in illicit technology rather than build nuclear weapons.

3. Myanmar’s receipt of illegally-exported or questionable dual-use items should cause the international community to reexamine export controls and policies specific to trade with the Southeast Asian country.

Article Text:

Is Myanmar developing nuclear weapons, perhaps with the help of North Korea? That worrisome possibility, prompted by Myanmar’s receipt of dual-use technology via an illegal North Korean procurement network, has garnered considerable speculation. Compelling evidence amassed in reports published this year by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), Jane’s Intelligence Review, and Al Jazeera indicates that, as the ISIS report put it, “There remain sound reasons to suspect that the military regime in Burma [Myanmar] might be pursuing a long-term strategy to make nuclear weapons.”1

The possible existence of such a program cannot and should not be discounted, but it is far from the only explanation that can account for Myanmar’s unusual imports. The dual-use technology sent to Myanmar — including a cylindrical grinder and magnetometer — are considerably beyond the country’s current technical capabilities, according to the DVB report. Such sophisticated devices, which could be used to produce nuclear- or missile-related parts, may point to a well-planned, long-term nuclear weapons program, perhaps assisted by North Korea.

However, alternate explanations also warrant consideration to better understand the nature of DPRK-Myanmar trade in such technologies. Plausible alternative scenarios include the use of Myanmar as a transshipment hub for items ultimately destined for North Korea, an evolving conventional missile program, procurement errors or other planning missteps, or some combination of these possibilities.

Myanmar as a transshipment hub. In late 2009, the Yokohama District Court in Japan found the president of Toko Boeki (a small Tokyo-based trading company) guilty of coordinating illegal WMD-related exports to Myanmar.2 Investigators determined that Toko Boeki had acquired cylindrical grinders and a magnetometer at the behest of New East International Company, a North Korean front company based in Hong Kong.3 Although New East International directed Toko Boeki to deliver the equipment to Myanmar, it is possible that the devices were not intended to remain there; Myanmar may have been a transfer point before the goods were shipped to another location — perhaps even North Korea.

Indeed, Myanmar has distinct advantages to North Korean procurement networks that want to circumvent sanctions and illegally divert dual-use equipment to Pyongyang. (See Editor’s Note.) Although it is also subject to sanctions, Myanmar is not as isolated as North Korea, and legitimate shipments originating from Japan, for example, can provide suitable cover for WMD-related deliveries.

In addition, Myanmar’s flourishing illegal trade networks — including drug and human trafficking — represent a familiarity with the kind of knowledge required to covertly transship deliveries to countries with more advanced WMD programs (such as North Korea). The rampant corruption associated with the military regime further enables illicit trade.

The revival of diplomatic and military relationships between Myanmar’s ruling junta and Pyongyang is another reason to consider whether North Korea, and not Myanmar, may have been the final destination for the dual-use equipment.4 Chartered or diplomatic air transport, necessary to ferry officials between capitals, is less susceptible to interdiction, offering an ideal conduit for the transfer of some types of dual-use equipment from Myanmar to North Korea. A UN panel of experts on Resolution 1874 (which strengthened sanctions on North Korea after its second nuclear test) highlighted such a scenario in a May 2010 report PDF, suggesting that Pyongyang may turn to illicit air cargo shipments as a preferred mode of transport for its illegal trade.

A conventional missile program. Myanmar may be an ideal transshipment hub, but reports from ISIS and DVB indicate that dual-use machine tools from Japan and Europe are not simply being stored in Myanmar, but also used there. This could indicate that the devices may actually be intended for use in Myanmar’s indigenous missile program.

Although Myanmar’s overall technological development appears limited in comparison with North Korea, the majority of the questionable dual-use items received by Myanmar may truly be for its own missile development effort. Acquisition of conventionally armed short- and medium-range ballistic missiles would provide the junta with a significant strategic advantage over regional and domestic rivals, and short-range missiles could be useful to fight insurgent groups that challenge the junta’s authority.5

Further, Myanmar’s defense industry already produces artillery and mobile rocket launchers, and the country reportedly has spent more than a decade improving its missile production capabilities.6 This practical experience could facilitate Myanmar’s eventual creation of larger missiles, such as Scarabs or early Scud derivatives. Myanmar cannot yet produce these missiles, but the equipment identified in the Toko Boeki case and in the DVB report could be used to help it develop more advanced missile designs.

Alternative scenarios. It is also possible that, after some of the questionable dual-use equipment had already been received, a North Korea-Myanmar proliferation relationship fell into disarray due to the enormous complexity that plagues all WMD programs. Payment disputes (similar to those PDF that held up Myanmar’s negotiations with Russia for a 10 megawatt research reactor) could be one cause.7 Myanmar’s acquisition of equipment beyond its technical capabilities could also be explained by a procurement error or an overestimation of indigenous know-how, as the DVB report acknowledges. In 2002, Myanmar expressed interest in buying a mini-submarine from Pyongyang, according to Jane’s, but abandoned the idea due in part to its lack of expertise.8

The transfer of such advanced equipment could also be an example of aggressive sales of unsuitable technology to a naïve junta, similar to Geoffrey Forden’s suggestion that North Korea has been selling subpar missile technology to states in the Middle East. It is also plausible that a core group of scientists has the ear of the junta — as well as its funding — and may have over-promised deliverables. These scientists might include U Thaung, the pro-nuclear energy minister of science and technology, and Ko Ko Oo, who is director general of the Department of Atomic Energy and former director of the Department of Technical and Vocational Education (DTVE). The two departments shared the same address, phone number, and fax number until Myanmar’s capital was moved to Naypidyaw, and the DTVE is an end-user of some of the questionable dual-use equipment that Myanmar has acquired, according to ISIS.9

Another possible scenario is that Myanmar could be “warehousing” devices for North Korea under a barter agreement that allows Myanmar to train personnel on the dual-use equipment (and thereby gain valuable hands-on experience with the devices) before it is ultimately moved to North Korea. It is possible that Myanmar may even be viewed as an offshore production hub for transfer of items to North Korea or other interested parties. Sanctions make it nearly impossible for Pyongyang to acquire controlled, technically advanced equipment that requires installation and maintenance by foreign technicians; North Korea and Myanmar may have therefore collaborated to purchase the equipment, install it in Myanmar, and use the machines to produce advanced missile or nuclear parts that could then be more easily routed via air cargo to North Korea (or elsewhere).

Conclusion. The possibility that Myanmar is pursuing a nuclear weapons program is just one of many potential explanations for its importation of technologically advanced dual-use items. The alarming prospect of a nuclear-armed Myanmar cannot be ignored, but neither should it prevent the assessment of other feasible scenarios. More research is needed to determine precisely why Myanmar received questionable dual-use items and to discover their final destination, if Myanmar is a transshipment point. Export control regimes should take note of the potential for diversion of dual-use items through Myanmar, and to protect regional stability, governments in Asia should reexamine their trade policies toward the Southeast Asian country.

Read the full article here:
North Korea and Myanmar: A match for nuclear proliferation?
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Catherine Boyle, Melissa Hanham, Robert Shaw
9/27/2010

Posted in Korean People's Army, Military, Myanmar, Nuclear | Comments Closed

Caleb Mission

Monday, September 20th, 2010

According to Voice of America:

A little-known South Korean Christian group is doing its best to expand what outsiders know about neighboring North Korea. The Caleb Mission has gained some recognition in recent months for releasing clandestine video of life inside the reclusive North. And now it has provided VOA with what it says is a secret North Korean military manual that regional security analysts consider authentic.

One of South Korea’s smallest and most obscure religious communities is making a name for itself by providing rare glimpses of life inside North Korea, and revealing some of its secrets.

Reverend Kim Sung-eun runs the Caleb Mission in Cheonan, about 80 kilometers south of the capital, Seoul. His wife, he says, is a former lieutenant in North Korea’s army. She is one of 30 or so defectors from the North who are frequently seen at the mission.

Kim says he is in regular contact with collaborators inside North Korea. Some secretly videotape what is going on in the country, which is virtually sealed off from the outside world. Others, he says, smuggle out official documents.

The pastor gave VOA a partial copy of what appears to be a 2005 North Korean military manual that details electronic warfare countermeasures, such as using radar-absorbing paint to camouflage jets and ships.

He did not go into detail about how the Caleb Mission acquired the manual, but U.S. and South Korean officials who have seen it consider the document authentic.

A South Korean newspaper also has obtained part of the manual and has reported on its contents.

Kim says they decided to release the manual because their colleagues inside North Korea are taking great risks by working on their projects. Thus, he explains, he wants to see some recognition for their efforts.

Daniel Pinkston, a long-time North Korea scholar and an analyst in Seoul for the International Crisis Group, considers the document important. “It’s certainly useful for analysts on the outside. And I would agree anyone in North Korea, any KPA (Korean People’s Army) soldiers or officers who would smuggle such a document out of the country, if they were to be caught, would suffer serious consequences. It would be a great risk to them, of course,” he said.

In communist North Korea, those suspected of disloyalty face imprisonment. Convictions for treason or espionage – and many lesser offenses – usually mean a death sentence.

At Caleb Mission, Kim says he has or can gain access to other sensitive materials, including videos and documents, but he needs to provide compensation to those who risk their lives to provide it.

He hopes that by releasing the information more widely in South Korea, he can generate funds to pay his collaborators in the impoverished North.

Kim says he has information detailing North Korean-sanctioned manufacturing and exporting of illicit drugs and the country’s extensive network of internment and re-education camps for political prisoners.

The U.S. State Department has warned in the past that North Korea was involved in drug trafficking.

Analyst Pinkston says the apparent willingness of North Koreans to provide such documentation – whatever the motives – could be a significant signal of societal change. “If we see more of these things coming out – materials, information, people – especially from the military, then that could be a sign of some breakdown in discipline and control. I’m not saying that’s the case here,” he states, “but when we do see these things coming out, that’s something we have to think about.”

North Korean media unfailingly praise Kim Jong Il and his father, the country’s first leader, creating a personality cult that dominates the government. The state controls almost all aspects of life, including food supplies, access to the media and employment.

Human rights groups consider North Korea to be one of the most repressive nations in the world. The government also has struggled for nearly 20 years to feed its people. After the collapse of communist governments in Europe, which had supported the North financially, its economy has nearly collapsed and it relies heavily on international food aid to avoid mass starvation.

Change, however, could be coming to North Korea. A rare meeting of the ruling Workers Party is expected to start soon to fill leadership slots. Many North Korea experts believe supreme leader Kim Jong Il will name his third son, Kim Jong Un, to a prominent post as part of grooming him to be his successor. The son is believed to be about 27 years old and has yet held no official position.

There are reports, however, of growing dissatisfaction among North Koreans about passing power to a young, little-known member of the Kim family.

The country faces renewed food shortages and continuing economic instability. In addition, its people are increasingly aware – through clandestine exposure to outside news media – of the huge gap between their country and most of the rest of the world, especially neighboring South Korea.

Posted in Military | Comments Closed

Evaluation of a DPRK cyber menace

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

James Lewis Writes in 38 North:

As intelligence operations are inherently covert in nature, North Korea may have a clandestine cyber collection effort, which it could use to launch attacks during a conflict. Indicators of an improving North Korean cyber capability would include a flow of skilled individuals from outsourcing companies back into the government, the discovery of North Korean “signatures” in malware, or the appearance and use of cyber techniques in military doctrine or exercises. Absent these developments, we should regard North Korean cyber capabilities in the same light we consider its other forays into advanced military systems—strong interest and ragged, self-made technologies, accompanied by bluster and exaggeration.

Read the full article here:
Speak Loudly and Carry a Small Stick: The North Korean Cyber Menace
38 North
James A. Lewis
9/2010

Posted in Computing/IT, Military | Comments Closed

DPRK Air Defense Command System and KPA Unit 681

Monday, August 30th, 2010

A few weeks ago I posted images of a secret Myanmar delegation visit to the DPRK. I was unsure the location of the “Model Command Post” (Command Control System and National Air Defense Command System – PLUTO – 4S), however an anonymous reader located a facility that is consistent with the picture taken by the Myanmar delegation:

The facility is located at 39° 3’0.86″N, 125°45’51.57″E between the Pyongyang television tower and the May Day Stadium. Satellite imagery reveals the facility is relatively new. As of October 2005, construction on the building had not begun.

Another reader also located the position of KPA unit 681. According to KCNA:

(Feb 11, 2009) General Secretary Kim Jong Il inspected Unit No. 681 under the KPA Artillery Command and watched its firing exercise.

He was greeted on the spot by Col. General Ri Jong Bu, KPA Artillery commander, and other general officers and commanding officers of the unit.

He acquainted himself with the unit’s performance of duty. Then he mounted an observation platform where he was briefed on the plan for the exercise by the artillery commander and watched it.

The one-match-for-a-hundred artillerymen’s exercise clearly showed the resolute determination of the servicemen to crush the aggressors at a single blow when they dare intrude into the DPRK even 0.001mm and their merciless striking capability.

After watching the exercise conducted by the brave servicemen firmly armed with the ever-victorious Juche-based war methods, he expressed great satisfaction over the fact that all the servicemen are fully prepared politically and ideologically and in military technique to beat back any enemy’s surprise invasion in time and defend the socialist homeland like an impregnable fortress.

He highly estimated their successful exercise and set forth important tasks which would serve as guidelines for further developing the KPA into invincible revolutionary armed forces.

The KPA, a successor to the brilliant traditions of the anti-Japanese war, has grown not only to be an army strong in ideology as it regards the spirit of devotedly defending the leader, the spirit of becoming human bullets and bombs as unshakable faith but to be powerful revolutionary armed forces equipped with modern offensive and defensive means enough to wipe out the enemies at a single blow no matter from which part of the earth they come to invade the DPRK, he said, adding: The socialist homeland is impregnable and its cause of building a great prosperous powerful nation is firmly guaranteed as its defence line is guarded by this invincible army, which has grown strong in the protracted and arduous struggle.

He met the servicemen who took part in the exercise and warmly encouraged them, before having a photo session with them.

He was accompanied by KPA Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun, minister of the People’s Armed Forces of the NDC of the DPRK, KPA General Ri Yong Ho, chief of the KPA General Staff, KPA General Kim Jong Gak, first vice-director of the KPA General Political Bureau, and KPA Generals Hyon Chol Hae, Kim Myong Guk and Ri Myong Su and other commanding officers of the army and Kim Ki Nam, secretary of the WPK Central Committee, and Jang Song Thaek, Pak Nam Gi and Kim Yang Gon, department directors of the C.C., the WPK, and other senior officials of the society.

By comparing satellite imagery with images captured from the ground, it appears that the unit is based near the Wonsan AFB runway:

Or maybe they just want us to think it is there!

Anyway, a big thanks to those readers for their time.

I can’t say enough about the benefits of crowd sourcing. This is how we located the DPRK’s Reconnaissance Bureau some time ago.

Posted in Google Earth, Military, Myanmar | Comments Closed

North Korean Economy Watch