Archive for the ‘International trade’ Category

North Korea exports coal as ‘Russian’ to get around sanctions

Tuesday, August 7th, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Reports Radio Free Asia:

In a move aimed at evading U.N. sanctions, North Korea is exporting coal to foreign buyers by sending shipments first to Russian ports, where the coal is falsely labeled as Russian-origin, North Korean sources say.

The export of North Korean coal is strictly banned under international sanctions punishing Pyongyang for its illicit nuclear weapons program, but North Korea has now opened new routes for trade with Russian help, a trade worker in North Pyongan province told RFA’s Korean Service.

“As sanctions on North Korea came into effect a couple of years ago, export routes for coal were blocked,” RFA’s source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“So North Korean trading companies have been shipping coal to the ports of Nakhodka and Vladivostok in the southern part of Primorsky Krai, in Russia. North Korean coal is then disguised as having come from Russia and is sent on to other countries under fake documents,” he said.

Loading ports for North Korean coal were formerly at Nampo and Songrim, on North Korea’s west coast close to China, but have now been moved to Chongjin and Wonsan, on the country’s eastern coast close to Russia, he said.

“When North Korean coal arrives at Nakhodka, a Russian company records its time of arrival, the length of the ship’s stay in port, and the amount of coal taken off. They then create false papers including a statement of the coal’s quality,” he said.

With these documents declaring the coal to be of Russian origin, “North Korea now has no problem exporting coal to other countries,” he said.

“The name of the Russian company that my company has been working with is Greenwich, and is located at the port in Nakhodka,” RFA’s source said. “They ask for two dollars per ton to disguise North Korean coal as Russian, and the North Korean trading company pays them right away.”

Still in demand

Also speaking to RFA, a North Korean trade worker based in the Chinese border city of Dandong said that North Korean representatives based in South and North Pyongan provinces collect information on countries needing coal and act as brokers for its export.

“Coal from these western-district mines is very high quality, so there is still a demand for it from other countries even though sanctions are in force,” he said.

A 30 percent deposit from the buying countries is required before the coal begins to move, with 30 percent of the balance due when the coal leaves its Russian port. The remaining 40 percent is then paid when the coal arrives at its final destination, the source said.

“For this three-step payment process, the money is deposited in a “borrowed” Chinese bank account, with the North Korean trading company paying banking fees,” he said.

Some of the coal sent from Russia now goes to South Korea and Japan, RFA’s source said.

“But North Korean company names don’t appear on the shipping papers, so the North Korean trading firms aren’t worried at all,” he said.

Resolve questioned

South Korea’s foreign ministry on Tuesday dismissed allegations that a foreign-flagged ship seen earlier at Nakhodka had delivered North Korean coal to South Korea’s southeastern port of Pohang, claiming the ship’s cargo was of Russian origin, according to an Aug. 7 report by the Yonhap news service.

“Critics here question the left-leaning Moon Jae-in administration’s resolve to curb the transport of North Korean coal,” a source of hard currency for the sanctions-hit Pyongyang regime, Yonhap said.

“But the government has stated that it remains committed to strictly abiding by U.N. mandates despite inter-Korean reconciliation,” Yonhap added.

The United States has meanwhile pointed to what it calls credible reports that Russia is in violation of U.N. sanctions against North Korea, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Aug. 4 urging full compliance with measures aimed at forcing the North to give up its nuclear weapons program.

Article source:
North Korea Exports Coal as ‘Russian’ in Bid to Beat Sanctions
Hyemin Son
Radio Free Asia
2018-08-07

Share

The economics of coal trade, sanctions, and rice prices in North Korea

Monday, August 6th, 2018

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

This may just be one piece of anecdotal evidence, but it’s interesting to note that sanctions haven’t necessarily leading to coal exports stopping – as we know from the multitude of evidence that North Korean coal ships have still been making their transport rounds – but primarily to drastically slashed prices, and surely to significantly smaller volumes being shipped as well. This reinforces the point that even if trade continues, sanctions put a large premium on trading with North Korea. Importers of North Korean coals, simply put, have to get charged less because of the risk they’re taking, and those exporting North Korea need to be paid more for the endeavor to be worth it.

(UPDATE on August 12th): I realized I may have misread the article – the source that Daily NK spoke with appears to be referring to domestic prices for coal, not export prices. Still, since we know that coal is in fact being exported through various evasion methods (albeit in fairly small quantities, perhaps), the point stands.

The article also makes an interesting point about the market prices for rice. It is remarkable how little prices have changed through the past year, when sanctions have been in place and enforced by China to a much greater extent than before. Still, according to this piece, prices aren’t dropping even though people’s incomes in fact are going down significantly, at least in parts of the country. So it may be that prices were already at or close to the “reservation price” for suppliers, i.e., the lowest point at which they’re willing to sell at all. Hard to confirm or check, but it is a plausible partial explanation for the strange dynamics of market prices in North Korea over the past year.

Daily NK:

As coal exports have slowed to a crawl due to international sanctions, North Korea’s coal country of Kaechon, South Pyongan Province, and Kujang County, North Pyongan Province, have been suffering under intense economic difficulties. Most residents in these areas were dependent on the export of coal and are directly feeling the effects of the trade stagnation.

“When coal was being exported, it went for up to 130,000 won (16 US dollars) a ton, but now due to the sanctions the price has fallen to 50,000 won (around 6 US dollars) a ton […] The coal must be sold for workers to get paid. The halt in  exports has even led to someone starving to death,” said Kim Woo Chul (alias, male resident of Kujang County), who was traveling in China on August 1.

“In April or May this year a fifty-year-old man died of starvation,” he said, nothing that while corn is provided by the government in July and August, “it lasts for less than two months.”

Kim also said that rice is being sold in the market but most people in the region can’t afford it. “Food is not scarce in the Kim Jong Un era, but people have no money so they can’t buy it,” he emphasized. Kim also noted that there were many empty food stands at the markets because demand has fallen due to the lack of money.

Another resident from Kaechon, South Pyongan Province, named Ri Sung Rim (alias) added, “There is a lot of rice at the markets, and people would buy it if they had money, but they don’t have money because coal is not being sold anymore […] People who ran private businesses selling coal are having a particularly bad time and are starving because they can’t even make corn porridge.”

She explained that a small amount of corn is given to those actually producing coal by the state, but teams that are not producing anything receive no food rations. “They have nothing to eat so there are even people who are taking their children and leaving the region,” she said.

The two interviewees also talked about the chronic electricity shortages in North Korea. While Pyongyang and other major cities are supplied with a relatively steady supply, the rural areas receive very little. People cannot watch television because of the lack of electricity, which means that many in these areas only recently found out that Kim Jong Un had met with the leaders of South Korea and the US.

“Electricity is only supplied for an hour or less in Pyongsong, while those who are wealthy siphon off electricity from factories or use car batteries,” said Kim. “Some of the wealthier people use car batteries to watch KCNA on television sets, but most cannot afford that.”

“Production teams get electricity, but residents don’t get electricity in their homes […] Car batteries need to be recharged to supply electricity at home, but there are no places to recharge them. People get them recharged if they know someone at the factories, but they are out of luck otherwise,” Ri said.

“I only found out about Chairman Kim Jong Un visiting China when I visited the country […] People need electricity to see the news and, since they can’t, they don’t know what’s going on.”

Article source:
Export sanctions lead to hard times for those in coal-producing regions
Ha Yoon-ah
Daily NK
2018-08-06

Share

Seoul says reopening Kaesong will wait till sanctions are lifted

Friday, August 3rd, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Korea Herald:

“The government’s stance remains unchanged when it comes to the issue of the resumption of the Kaesong Industrial Complex,” Lee Eugene, a deputy spokesperson of the unification ministry, told reporters during a regular press briefing.

“The stance has not been changed either that things will be considered in line with progress in denuclearization efforts and within the frame of sanctions,” she added. “From a broad perspective, it would be desirable to push for its resumption after the lifting of the sanctions.”

Opened in 2004, the industrial park in the North’s border town of Kaesong was hailed as a key symbol of economic cooperation between the rival Koreas as it combined South Korean capital and technology with cheap labor from North Korea. The Seoul government, however, halted its operation in 2016 in retaliation for Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear provocations.

The North has recently ramped up its call for the South to reopen the industrial park amid a thaw in relations, but the US.

Article source:
Seoul says reopening of Kaesong complex should wait until sanctions lifted
Korea Herald/Yonhap
2018-08-03

Share

Thousands of North Korean workers enter Russia despite UN ban

Thursday, August 2nd, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Reports Wall Street Journal:

Russia is letting thousands of new North Korean laborers enter the country and issuing fresh work permits—actions U.S. officials say potentially violate United Nations sanctions aimed at cutting cash flows to Pyongyang and pressing it to give up nuclear weapons.

The U.N. Security Council in September barred governments from issuing new work permits to North Koreans, though some existing labor contracts were allowed to continue.

Since the ban, more than 10,000 new North Korean workers have registered in Russia, according to Russian Interior Ministry records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, at least 700 new work permits have been issued to North Koreans this year, according to Labor Ministry records.

[…]

North Korean laborers have helped feed the construction boom in St. Petersburg, according to local businessmen.

“They work till they drop,” said a contractor who hires North Koreans across the city. Workers arrive at construction sites at 7 a.m. and work until 10 p.m. or even midnight, taking just two half-hour breaks for meals of rice and dried fish, he said.

Local developers say they pay companies that hire out North Korean workers—firms they say often represent North Korean institutions such as the military or state conglomerates—about 100,000 rubles ($1,600) a month per worker. In government filings and job advertisements, such companies list monthly worker salaries of 16,000 to 20,000 rubles.

That 80% difference is in line with U.S. assessments that North Korea’s government takes the bulk of earnings.

U.N. sanctions mean these laborers should be gone by September, a year after they went into effect, because the workers are required to leave once their permits expire, usually within a year. Even workers with multiyear permits must be out by the end of 2019 under the sanctions.

Yet many firms contracting out laborers—Russian companies owned and run by North Koreans, according to corporate documents and researchers—are investing in new offices, applying for new work permits and negotiating new projects.

“The Kim regime continues to dispatch citizens abroad,” said C4ADS, a nonprofit that advises the U.S. government on security risks, in a report released Thursday. “In doing so, it continues to flout international sanctions to generate foreign currency.”

About 100,000 or more North Korean laborers have been working overseas in recent years, the U.S. State Department said. Pyongyang’s labor exports earned as much as $2 billion a year for the Kim regime, analysts say.

According to Russian government data, around 24,000 North Koreans were officially working in the country at the end of last year.

Full article and source:
Thousands of North Korean Workers Enter Russia Despite U.N. Ban
Ian Talley and Anatoly Kurmanev
Wall Street Journal
2018-08-02

Share

Further indications that China’s sanctions pressure on North Korea is decreasing

Friday, July 27th, 2018

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

This blog has previously covered the fact that China’s sanctions pressure on North Korea seems to be decreasing, according to a number of signs, after the spring of summits. No official announcement or the like has been made (which wouldn’t come in any case), but the trend is consistent with China’s previous patterns in sanctions enforcement against North Korea: keep the pressure up while global attention focuses on North Korea, and scale it back once things calm down. A recent NK Pro article lends credence to this view, based on information from sources that have visited the Sino-North Korean border, as well as other visible signs. I won’t copy and paste from it since it’s for subscribers only, but here are some of the main points:

  • Traffic across the Friendship Bridge between Dandong and Sinuiju, estimated to be carrying some 60 percent of Sino-North Korean trade, appears to have gone back to somewhat more normal levels, if not fully to what they would be in normal times. It should be mentioned that estimating traffic by counting trucks – which I have done myself – is a tricky method, since we can’t really know what volumes are inside the trucks. Still, it’s one of few methods that exist for estimating traffic over the bridge.
  • The construction of a bridge between Tumen city in China and Namyang in North Korea, which paused as tensions increased, appears to be continuing. According to NK Pro’s source, China is paying for it all.
  • Chinese tourism to North Korea has spiked in July, as other outlets have reported as well.
  • Gas prices in North Korea have fallen in July, as this blog has also covered before.

None of these indicators give hard evidence that Chinese sanctions enforcement is slacking off, but taken together, they provide a pretty clear picture. I recently spoke to a person who just visited Dandong, and said that traffic remains unusually slow, both according to their own impression and that of local businesspeople. But traffic may be slower on a given day or during a given week for other reasons. At the end of the day, we don’t really know for sure, but taken together, the impression is that things appear to be moving away from “maximum pressure” pretty consistently.

 

Share

Seoul needs sanctions exemptions, official says

Monday, July 23rd, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

If anyone ever doubted that the US and South Korea are not in lockstep on sanctions…The question is how hard Seoul is pushing behind the scenes, and how hard it is prepared to push. Joongang:

A South Korean delegation that traveled to New York over the past weekend said Seoul needed to be exempted from some international sanctions against the North to implement the Panmunjom Declaration.

The remarks came on the same day that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated that sanctions against Pyongyang will remain in place until the North fully denuclearizes.

The rare show of discrepancy between the allies came at an unusually sensitive time between the South and North, after North Korean media excruciated South Korean authorities for what it said was kowtowing to the U.S. on inter-Korean issues.

A local official said Pyongyang appeared to be fed up with Seoul’s reluctance to help the regime wiggle out of sanctions.

South Korea’s official stance has been to support sanctions on the North until the country gives up its nuclear weapons, but from time to time officials have expressed a hope to seek exemptions, especially to work out the cross-border projects that South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their first summit on April 27.

Last Friday in New York, a high-level South Korean official who spoke on the condition of anonymity decided to convey that hope to reporters – just as Pompeo highlighted in a different news conference that all UN member-states unanimously agreed to fully enforce sanctions on the North. The official was part of a delegation led by South Korean Foreign Affairs Minister Kang Kyung-wha, who traveled to New York to co-host a briefing session with Pompeo on peninsular issues for representatives of the UN Security Council.

Soon after the briefing, the official told South Korean correspondents in New York that the South Korean government “needed” some exemption from international sanctions on the North to implement the Panmunjom Declaration, adding that it was asking the international community to grant that exemption as it was leading the North through dialogue and cooperation.

Full article:
Seoul needs sanctions exemption, official says
Jung Hyo-Sik, Yoo Jee-Hye, and Lee Seung-Eun
Joongang Daily
2018-07-23

Share

US government issues North Korea sanctions advisory

Monday, July 23rd, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

A new advisory was issued today by several US government department, focusing on risks that companies run throughout their supply chains, where North Korean labor may have been involved without said companies knowing. NK News:

The publication of the advisory notice comes three days after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the UN Security Council (UNSC), where he called for the strict maintenance of sanctions against the DPRK amid current diplomatic engagement.

The purpose of the advisory is to “highlight sanctions evasions tactics used by North Korea that could expose businesses – including manufacturers, buyers, and service providers – to sanctions compliance risks under U.S. and/or United Nations sanctions authorities,” it reads.

“Businesses should be aware of deceptive practices employed by North Korea in order to implement effective due diligence policies, procedures, and internal controls to ensure compliance with applicable legal requirements across their entire supply chains,” it added.

The U.S. Department of State, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) co-authored the advisory.

The notice identifies what the government deemed as two primary risks to businesses, which are the “inadvertent sourcing of goods, services, or technology from North Korea” and “the presence of North Korean citizens or nationals in companies’ supply chains, whose labor generates revenue for the North Korean government.”

Full article:
U.S. government issues North Korea sanctions enforcement advisory
Hamish Macdonald
NK News
2018-07-23

Share

WSJ on South Korean firms planning for business opportunities in North Korea

Monday, July 23rd, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein 

WSJ:

After months of rapprochement—including summit meetingsbetween North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and one between Mr. Kim and President Donald Trump —hopes are rising for more open access to North Korea, a country of 25 million people with vast mineral reserves and lots of cheap labor.

Samsung C&T Corp . , the de facto holding company of South Korea’s biggest and best-known conglomerate, created a North Korea task force in May, staffed by an executive and three managers.

Samsung’s construction arm, which has built some of the world’s tallest skyscrapers and is building subway lines in Singapore and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, sees opportunity in the North as economic growth slows in the South.

Full article here:
Companies See Glimmers of Opportunity in North Korea
Jonathan Cheng
Wall Street Journal
2018-07-23

Share

North Korea’s negative growth in 2017: things look bad, unsurprisingly, but take the numbers with a grain of salt

Friday, July 20th, 2018

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Bank of Korea (BOK) has put out their yearly estimate of North Korea’s GDP trends. This year, they estimate that the country’s GDP decreased by 3.5 percent. Off the top of my head, this seems a fairly reasonable estimate, particularly since sanctions were only in force for a minor part of the year (late fall and onward). Some quick thoughts below:

As always, remember: estimate GDP in North Korea is very, very hard. How do you evaluate, for example, the market sector versus the state sector? Given how complicated and partially opaque North Korea’s system for pricing it, how can a GDP figure even be reasonably estimated? That said, BOK has been doing this for many years, and their figures are, for all their faults and flaws, some of the most reasonable estimates among the few that exist. Still, as one of the leading experts in the field once told a class of grad students studying the Korean economy: if someone gives you a figure on the North Korean economy with a specific decimal number, you can be sure that it’s wrong.

Some news outlets have made a big number of the fact that this contraction is the largest for over two decades, according to the BOK numbers. While that is true, the proportions are very different: in 1997, BOK estimates that the economy contracted by 6.5 percent, that is, almost double the contraction of 2017. So we’re not talking about any crisis nearly as significant as the famine of the 1990s.

BOK estimates a drop by 1.3 percent in agricultural and fisheries production. Notably, still, market prices for food have looked completely normal throughout the year, as this blog has noted several times before. It’s unclear how exactly agricultural production is estimated, and what the “sector” here really means – only what goes into the state-side of agricultural production and supply, or the sale of surplus production on the semi-private markets? The latter may very well be underestimated given how tricky it is to asses what share of agricultural production still lies firmly and solely within the state system.

It’s unclear how much of the shortfall in electricity production is compensated for by items like solar panels and other forms of electricity generation increasingly prevalent on the ground. Many have noted the various creative ways in which much of the North Korean population already adapts to the shortfall and unreliability of public supply of electricity.

The estimated trade numbers are very dire but also probably approximately realistic. Though the 37 percent shortfall in exports may be an overestimate given that they (presumably) don’t account for smuggling, it is undeniable that the economy is taking a very large hit from sanctions. People who recently visited the Chinese border speak of very low levels of activity in goods transports and the like. This gives cause for some skepticism toward the reports claiming that Chinese sanctions enforcement has gone much more lax lately: it may well have, but that hardly means the doors are flung open. At the same time, imports went up 1.8 percent. Either China is letting North Korea run a trade deficit which they assume they’ll get back once sanctions are eased, or the regime has much more currency stashed away to pay with the goods for than many have thought. The truth may lie somewhere in the middle there.

 

Share

China investing in North Korean infrastructure, says Kyodo News

Friday, July 20th, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Kyodo:

China has decided to invest 600 million yuan (about $88.4 million) in infrastructure such as roads in North Korea around a bridge connecting the two countries, bilateral sources said Friday, raising concerns that Beijing may violate U.N. resolutions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s leadership is scheduled to start the infrastructure investment by the end of this year, the sources said, as Beijing and Pyongyang have been strengthening their economic cooperation recently.

The effective economic aid would be regarded as a violation of U.N. resolutions aimed at preventing North Korea from producing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, U.N. diplomats said.

While preparing to dispense the aid, China is expected to begin negotiations with U.N. Security Council member states with an eye on easing economic sanctions against North Korea, now that Pyongyang has pledged to work toward denuclearization, the sources added.

The new bridge over the Yalu River from the Chinese border city of Dandong, Liaoning Province, to the North Korean county of Ryongchon was completed in 2014 after four years of construction.

But roads connecting to the bridge have yet to be developed on the North Korean side, preventing it from going into operation.

Earlier this month, Liaoning authorities decided to set up a project to support the construction of the roads and the Chinese central government has already approved it, the sources said.

Since March, relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have been markedly improving, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visiting China for summit talks with Xi no less than three times.

The two leaders apparently exchanged views on denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and economic aid, with Kim vowing to build a “powerful socialist economy.” The North Korean leader has often visited the border near China recently.

Full article:
China to invest in infrastructure in N. Korea, may violate sanctions
Kyodo News
2018-07-20

Share