Archive for the ‘Arms shipment’ Category

DPRK scores last place in economic freedom (again)

Tuesday, January 16th, 2007

Heritage 2007 Index of Economic Freedom

North Korea’s economy is 3% free, according to our 2007 assessment, which makes it the world’s least free economy, or 157th out of 157 countries. North Korea is ranked 30th out of 30 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and its overall score is the lowest in the world.

North Korea does not score well in a single area of economic freedom, although it does score 10 percent in investment freedom and property rights. The opening of the Kaesong industrial venture in cooperation with South Korea has been a start in foreign investment.

Business freedom, investment freedom, trade freedom, financial freedom, freedom from corruption, and labor freedom are nonexistent. All aspects of business operations are totally controlled and dominated by the government. Normal foreign trade is almost zero. No courts are independent of political interference, and private property (particularly land) is strictly regulated by the state. Corruption is virtually immeasurable and, in the case of North Korea, hard to distinguish from necessity. Much of North Korea’s economy cannot be measured, and world bodies like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are not permitted to gather information. Our policy is to give countries low marks for specific freedoms when it is country policy to restrict measurement of those freedoms.

Background:
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has maintained its Communist system since its founding in 1948. A serious economic decline began in the early 1990s with the end of economic support from the Soviet Union and other Communist-bloc countries, including China. Floods and droughts all but destroyed the agricultural infrastructure and led to severe famine and dislocation of the population during the 1990s. South Korean and Chinese investments in the economy have alleviated dire conditions. The government continues to rely on counterfeiting foreign currency and sales of missiles for money. That and the nuclear ambitions and isolationism of Kim Jong Il reinforce North Korea’s status as the hermit kingdom.

Business Freedom – 0.0%
The state regulates the economy heavily through central planning. The economic reforms implemented in 2002 allegedly brought some changes at the enterprise and industrial level, but government regulations make the creation of any entrepreneurial activities virtually impossible. The overall freedom to start, operate, and close a business is extremely restricted by the national regulatory environment.

Trade Freedom – 0.0%
The government controls all imports and exports, and formal trade is minimal. Data on North Korean trade are limited and compiled from trading partners’ statistics. Most North Korean trade is de facto aid, mainly from North Korea’s two main trading partners, China and South Korea. Non-tariff barriers are significant. Inter-Korean trade remains constrained in scope by North Korea’s difficulties with implementing needed reform. Given the lack of necessary tariff data, a score of zero is assigned.

Fiscal Freedom – 0.0%
No data on income or corporate tax rates are available. Given the absence of published official macroeconomic data, such figures as are available with respect to North Korea’s government expenditures are highly suspect and outdated.

Freedom from Government – 0.0%
The government owns all property and sets production levels for most products, and state-owned industries account for nearly all GDP. The state directs all significant economic activity. The government implemented limited economic reforms, such as changes in foreign investment codes and restructuring in industry and management, in 2002.

Monetary Freedom – 0.0%
In July 2002, North Korea introduced price and wage reforms that consisted of reducing government subsidies and telling producers to charge prices that more closely reflect costs. However, without matching supply-side measures to boost output, the result of these measures has been rampant inflation for many staple goods. With the ongoing crisis in agriculture, the government has banned sales of grain at markets and returned to a rationing system. Given the lack of necessary inflation data, a score of zero is assigned.

Investment Freedom – 10.0%
North Korea does not welcome foreign investment. One attempt to open the economy to foreigners was its first special economic zone, located at Rajin-Sonbong in the northeast. However, Rajin-Sonbong is remote and still lacks basic infrastructure. Wage rates in the special zone are unrealistically high, as the state controls the labor supply and insists on taking its share. More recent special zones at Mt. Kumgang and Kaesong are more enticing. Aside from these few economic zones where investment is approved on a case-by-case basis, foreign investment is prohibited.

Financial Freedom – 0.0%
North Korea is a Communist command economy and lacks a private financial sector. The central bank also serves as a commercial bank with a network of local branches. The government provides most funding for industries and takes a percentage from enterprises. There is an increasing preference for foreign currency. Foreign aid agencies have set up microcredit schemes to lend to farmers and small businesses. A rumored overhaul of the financial system to permit firms to borrow from banks has not materialized. Because of debts dating back to the 1970s, most foreign banks will not consider entering North Korea. A South Korean bank has opened a branch in the Kaesong zone. The state holds a monopoly on insurance, and there are no equity markets.

Property Rights – 10.0%
Property rights are not guaranteed in North Korea. Almost all property belongs to the state, and the judiciary is not independent.

Freedom from Corruption – 10.0%
North Korea’s informal market is immense, especially in agricultural goods, as a result of famines and oppressive government policies. There is also an active informal market in currency and in trade with China.

Labor Freedom – 0.0%
The government controls and determines all wages. Since the 2002 economic reforms, factory managers have had more autonomy to set wages and offer incentives, but the labor market still operates under highly restrictive employment regulations that seriously hinder employment and productivity growth.

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Singapore bans export of luxury goods to N. Korea

Wednesday, January 3rd, 2007

Kyodo News
1/3/2007

Singapore has banned the export of luxury items and military equipment to North Korea as of the beginning of this year in line with U.N. Security Council sanctions, Singapore Customs said Wednesday on its website.

In addition, it has also curbed the use of the city-state as a transhipment hub in Asia for such exports.

The notice said the government has banned the export of 14 luxury items to North Korea, including cigars, wines, luxury cars, perfume, plasma televisions, personal digital music players and musical instruments.

It said the export and transit of military equipment and goods and technology related to nuclear programs, ballistic missiles and other weapons of mass destruction have also been prohibited.

Traders here have been ordered to declare to the agency details of their exports to North Korea at least three working days before shipment.

The agency has warned that those who breach the rule could be slapped with hefty fines of up to S$100,000 (about $65,000) or three times the value of the goods, whichever is greater, or sent to jail for up to two years, or both.

Multiple offenders could be fined up to S$200,000 or four times the value of goods, whichever is greater, or jailed up to three years or both.

The U.N. Security Council in October imposed weapons and financial sanctions on North Korea under resolution 1718, which was adopted after the North’s claimed nuclear tests.

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ROK to join U.S.-led container security system

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

Yonhap
12/6/2006

South Korea is set to announce its participation in a U.S.-led campaign to stop container-borne radioactive materials after refusing to help interdict North Korean ships suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction.

A Foreign Ministry official confirmed Wednesday that Seoul decided to join the International Container Scanning Network, or ICSN.

“The government plans to formally announce the decision later this week,” the official said, asking not to be identified.

The ICSN calls for its members to install state-of-the-art radioactivity detectors at their major ports so customs officials can screen the contents of containers without opening them.

International efforts to curb the flow of nuclear materials have gained more urgency since North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October.

Seoul’s decision to join the ICSN was widely interpreted as designed to offset its limited participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).

South Korea said last month that it would stay away from any PSI-related activity in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula, citing its unique geopolitical situation. South Korea remains technically at war with the communist North and the two sides are vulnerable to military clashes especially in the poorly-demarcated West Sea.

South Korea described its position in the PSI as “special status,” as it kept the door open for PSI activities in remote areas.

Government officials, however, said the PSI was not considered when it made the decision to join the ICSN, a project still being tested.

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US accuses DPRK of selling missles

Monday, October 30th, 2006

From the Korea Times
10/30/2006

North May Have Been Selling Missiles

North Korea was selling its missiles to the Near East as recently as 2003-2004, according to inferences made in the latest report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS).

The annual report, titled “ Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations,” says 40 surface-to-surface missiles were sold to the Near East by “other suppliers” that exclude the United States, Russia, China, and European countries.

The New York Times, quoting Pentagon and other U.S. administration officials, said North Korea is the unnamed supplier.

CRS reports are written for congressmen and their aides.

Dated Oct. 20, the report tallies and analyzes general weapons transfers between 1998-2005. The missile sales figures were for 2001-2005.

The number of missiles sold by “other suppliers” is the same as that of the previous report that covered the period between 2001-2004, suggesting North Korea did not export more missiles in 2005.

But in a report for the 2000- 2003 period, the other suppliers were believed to have sold 20 surface-to-surface missiles to the Near East, indicating there were additional exports of the weapons to the region between 2003 and 2004.

The year 2004 was when the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) got under way to interdict shipments of weapons of mass destruction.

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Bank of Korea sees hardship in sanctions

Tuesday, October 24th, 2006

From the Joong Ang Daily:
Bank sees North pain if sanctions take hold
10/24/2006
Choi Hyung-kyu, Ser Myo-ja

The Bank of Korea said yesterday, in a report prepared for a legislator, that international financial sanctions on North Korea could deal a heavy blow to the North’s shaky economy.

In an assessment for Representative Yim Tae-hee of the Grand National Party, the central bank said a 30-percent reduction in foreign currency inflows to North Korea would lower economic activity by three-quarters of a percentage point. A halving of North Korea’s external trade, the paper said, would reduce economic growth by nearly 5.5 percentage points; a 70-percent falloff in trade would drop economic output by 8.25 points.

Estimates of economic activity in centrally planned economies are difficult at best, however, and North Korea’s secrecy makes such estimates even more tenuous.

“When international financial institutions join in the sanctions and cut the influx of the annual $800 million in foreign currency to the North, Pyongyang will face serious trouble,” Mr. Yim said.

He added, without citing sources, that the North earns about $300 million through legitimate activities, such as inter-Korean economic cooperation deals and remittances from North Koreans abroad, adding that counterfeiting and drug trafficking bring in about $500 million more annually.

Christopher Hill, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for Asia, arrived in Hong Kong on Saturday to meet, among others, William Ryback, the deputy chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

“The U.S. team asked the Hong Kong authorities to cooperate in its effort to freeze North Korean assets in Hong Kong and Macao,” a Hong Kong source said yesterday. “Hong Kong gave a positive answer.”

Another Hong Kong government source said Mr. Hill also asked the government there to help inspect suspect North Korean ships.

“A North Korean ship under a U.S. intelligence watch is on its way to Hong Kong,” the official said. “Mr. Hill asked the authorities to inspect the boat thoroughly when it enters port here.”

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U.S. puts the brakes on N.K. missile sales

Sunday, September 10th, 2006

From the Korea Herald:
9/10/2006

The United States has had some success in limiting North Korea’s export of missiles by persuading other countries not to buy them, a senior administration official says.

Washington has long sought to stop such sales and stepped up its initiative after Pyongyang tested a string of missiles in July, including a long-range missile.

“As a direct result of our policies, we have cut off North Korea from several of its customers for ballistic missiles,” Robert Joseph, the Bush administration’s top nonproliferation official, told Reuters.

“We have made it more difficult for the North to ship missiles and have made it more likely that these shipments will be exposed. The risk of exposure further turns off customers,” he said in a recent interview.

He said Yemen committed not to buy more North Korean missiles after taking delivery of a shipment of 15 Scuds in 2002 and Libya promised to forgo North Korean missiles as part of a 2003 agreement in which it abandoned its weapons of mass destruction and missile programs.

Some U.S. officials say Pakistan and Egypt also are no longer buying from Pyongyang, leaving Iran and Syria as the major missile customers.

Some other U.S. officials and experts are skeptical of the effectiveness of the Bush administration policy.

Jonathan Pollack, chair of the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island, welcomed the close scrutiny the U.S.-led program had brought on North Korea’s activities but said the results were difficult to measure and it was probably too soon to draw firm conclusions.

The U.S. strategy includes a crackdown on banks that aid the North’s illicit activities and the “proliferation security initiative” in which some 88 member nations share intelligence and practice interdicting weapons shipments.

In addition, potential buyer nations now may find their U.S. aid curtailed if they buy weapons from North Korea. Pakistan, Iraq and Egypt are major recipients of U.S. assistance.

After Pyongyang tested seven missiles in July, the United Nations called on countries to avoid supporting the missile program. Missile sales earn the impoverished state hundreds of millions of dollars in hard currency.

One long-range missile crashed soon after launch during the July tests, but the other medium range missiles hit their target areas, U.S. officials and experts said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said North Korea – which claims itself to be a nuclear weapons power – is more dangerous as a proliferator than as a military threat to neighbor South Korea.

Pyongyang has been working on missile production for three decades and is the leading supplier of ballistic missiles to the developing world, experts say.

The chief exports are variations of Soviet-origin Scud missiles, regarded as fairly reliable and accurate but based on technology advanced military powers would consider obsolete.

North Korea’s oldest and most loyal customer has been Iran, which helped finance Scud development, according to various U.S. studies. The connection dates to the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s when Pyongyang tested and shipped missiles to Tehran.

North Korea, as well as China, provided ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and their production facilities to Iran, Iraq, Syria and Egypt, U.S. government reports say. Libya and Pakistan have also been missile customers.

Arms connections between North Korea and Iran are very strong, with the former regime being the main supplier of ballistic missile technologies to Tehran, a senior U.S. nonproliferation official said Wednesday.

Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph, in charge of arms control and international security, was cautious about going into intelligence.

“But I can say that the connections between North Korea and Iran are very strong,” he said at a news conference with the foreign press.

“And North Korea has been, I think, the principal supplier to Iran of ballistic missile technologies,” he said.

Suspicions about exchanges of personnel, technology and equipment between Pyongyang and Tehran on missile development date back decades. Joseph noted that a number of revelations about such ties have already been made public.

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Pyongyang Selling Missiles in Pieces: Report

Monday, August 28th, 2006

From the Korea Times:

North Korea has recently changed its means of selling missiles to avoid interception, delivering them by air instead of by sea and in the form of components and equipment rather than complete products, a U.S.-based research organization said yesterday.
In its latest report, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), headquartered in Monterey, California, said North Korea’s missile program appears to be under the command and control of its air force, not the army, an arrangement similar to Iran, which is believed to be buying missiles from the communist regime, according to the Yonhap News Agency in Seoul.

The report, called “CNS Resources on North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Program,” said that as Western opposition to the deliveries has increased, Pyongyang’s shipments have begun to be made by air rather than by sea, sometimes with the help of Moscow.

“Insome instances, this has been accomplished with private-sector Russian assistance, thereby calling into question the Russian government’s ability and/or willingness to control North Korea’s missile proliferation,” said the report.

The CNS Web site says the report was updated Aug. 11 this year.

North Korea also resorted to selling missile components and production equipment to clients, which include Iran, Pakistan and Syria, the report said.

“These changes will allow more rapid shipping deliveries, and interception of such shipments will become more difficult,” it said.

The CNS noted with interest that North Korea’s ballistic missiles appear to be under air force, not army, command and control.

It was Gen. Jo Myong-rok, then commander of the North Korean Air Force, who led a delegation to Iran in February 1994 to discuss testing of the Rodong missile in Iran, the report said.

“It should also be noted that Iranian ballistic missiles fall under the command and control of the air wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps,” it said.

North Korea’s missile program came under renewed scrutiny after the secretive regime test-fired seven missiles last month, ranging from versions of its short-range Rodong to its long-rang Taepodong presumed to be able to strike the U.S. west coast.

The CNS said that while the test launches suggest advances in North Korea’s missile capabilities, there are still several technical hurdles before the long-range versions can be fielded.

“The developmental leaps to successful multiple stage systems using large rocket motors cannot be achieved without external technological assistance,” it said.

“Some of this assistance is probably being provided by Russian specialists, both in North Korea and Russia,” said the report, due mainly to Moscow’s inability to completely halt the leakage of information.

It added that while the shorter-range Rodong missiles are operational, since it has exported some to Iran, Pakistan and other nations, “it may not have enough missiles to field a full brigade.”

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N. Korea kept millions at Vietnam bank

Thursday, August 24th, 2006

From Kyodo News:

North Korea’s Tanchon Commercial Bank, which has been identified by the United States as the primary financial facilitator of that country’s ballistic missile program, had until recently held dollar and euro accounts at Vietnam’s Military Commercial Bank, a Military Commercial Bank official said recently.

The official said millions of both dollars and euros, respectively, had been deposited in the accounts.

But the funds were hastily transferred to other banks, including a German bank, in July after the State Bank of Vietnam, the country’s central bank, acceded to a U.S. request and began checking on any North Korean accounts involved in suspicious banking transactions.

Tanchon Commercial Bank is among North Korean entities that the United States has since June last year designated as proliferators of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, or their supporters, imposing sanctions aimed at denying them access to the U.S. financial and commercial systems.

The United States is urging other members of the United Nations to identify, track and freeze financial transactions and assets of such North Korean entities as the first step in implementing a binding U.N. Security Council resolution adopted last month.

The unanimous Security Council resolution, which condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile launches in early July, requires all U.N. member nations to prevent the transfer of financial resources that could help North Korea’s missile and WMD programs.       

The U.S. Treasury Department identifies Tanchon Commercial Bank as the main financial agent for North Korea’s sales of conventional arms, ballistic missiles, and goods related to the assembly and manufacture of such weapons, which have provided Pyongyang with a significant portion of its export earnings and financially aided its own weapons development and arms-related purchases.

The Pyongyang-based bank held accounts at Macao’s Banco Delta Asia SARL, which the United States in September 2005 subjected to sanctions as a “primary money laundering concern” that had facilitated a range of North Korean illicit activities.

While it was not clear when the funds were deposited in the North Korean accounts at the Vietnam’s Military Commercial Bank, the bank official said they were transferred from a German bank and from the Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, or Vietcombank.

According to sources, financial intelligence authorities of the United States, South Korea and Japan recently compiled a report on North Korea’s overseas bank accounts that singled out 23 accounts in 10 countries, including Russia, deemed suspicious. Among the total, around 10 were in Vietnamese banks.

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Stuart Levey, responsible for terrorism and financial intelligence issues, visited Vietnam in mid-July and called for Hanoi’s cooperation in investigating and freezing the suspicious North Korean bank accounts.

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China freezes DPRK bank accounts I

Monday, July 24th, 2006

This is big news.  The Bank of China has frozen DPRK-owned bank accoounts for one of two reasons:

1.  The Bank of China plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), as a result, it has to comply with western regulations and concerns…making its role as the new faciltator of DPRK monetary transactions more difficult to accept.  

2.  The Chinese now suspect the DPRK of counterfeiting the Chinese Yuan.

I am not sure of the real reason just yet.  Anyway, here is the coverage in the South Korean press: 

From the Joong Ang Daily:

Bank of China freezes North’s money accounts
Lawmaker, citing U.S. official, blames counterfeiting concerns
by Brian Lee 

The state-run Bank of China has frozen its North Korean bank accounts due to concerns over counterfeit money, a Grand National Party lawmaker claimed yesterday.

Lawmaker Park Jin said his information came from a former senior U.S. government official of the Bush administration, who served at the White House.

Nevertheless, an official with the Foreign Ministry said yesterday that there was no information in regard to Mr. Park’s claim while the Chinese Embassy to Seoul said it was not in a position to comment.

Mr. Park visited in Washington recently with ruling and opposition lawmakers.

The lawmaker said that after Washington initiated an operation called “Smoking Dragon” in September of last year, which was designed to target North Korean counterfeit activities, a Macao-based bank was put under financial sanctions and North Korea moved its bank accounts to China in response.

Mr. Park said the former official told him that continuing probes by Washington led to the measure taken by the Chinese bank.

Mr. Park said yesterday that the Chinese bank was opting to list its stock at the New York Stock Exchange and was told it had little choice but to freeze the accounts.

The lawmaker said he didn’t know the exact timing of when the Chinese bank had frozen the North Korean accounts but speculated that a recent rift between Beijing and Pyongyang was due in part to that incident.

China agreed to a UN resolution passed earlier this month that was drafted in response to North Korea’s missile launch, which occurred despite Beijing’s efforts to stop it.

Mr. Park asserted that Pyongyang is also forging Chinese yuan currency. However, Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok who was asked about it yesterday at a briefing to the National Assembly’s Unification, Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee, said Seoul had no information one way or the other about the forging.

From the Korea Times:

China freezes N.K. accounts: lawmaker
By Lee Joo-hee

A South Korean lawmaker yesterday claimed that the Bank of China froze its North Korean accounts in relation to the alleged counterfeiting activities of the communist regime.

Citing former and incumbent Washington officials, Grand National Party lawmaker Park Jin said the latest move by China was connected with the United States’ financial measures against North Korea’s counterfeiting and laundering of money.

“This is a virtual ban against dealing with North Korea by China, leaving North Korea all the more devastated,” Park said. Park was in Washington to attend a seminar that started on July 15.

Last September, the U.S. Treasury Department cautioned American banks from dealing with Banco-Delta Asia, a Macau-based bank, which allegedly helped circulate North Korea’s counterfeit U.S. dollars.

The measure eventually forced the Macau bank to freeze the North Korean accounts, which amounted to $24 million.

North Korea immediately protested the move and has since boycotted the six-party talks.

“According to U.S. officials, although the $24 million may not appear to be a large sum, North Korea is sensitive to this issue because most of the funds are used for bribery and purchases of weapon components,” Park said.

Park said that following the freeze of BDA, the U.S. Treasury Department trained their radars onto other banks in Macau. North Korea has moved its accounts into banks in China since, he said.

Washington is currently evaluating the data from BDA for proof that North Korea counterfeited U.S. dollars.

North Korea is apparently concerned that the BDA measure could also affect some $200 million to $300 million accounts that are scattered in Singapore, Austria, Switzerland and Russia.

In yesterday’s parliamentary session, Park questioned Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok over North Korea’s counterfeit currency.

Park contended that North Korea was also counterfeiting Chinese yuan, but Lee responded that he did not have any specific information about it.

Reports in Tokyo yesterday said Japan was contemplating revising foreign exchange and trade laws, as part of its additional sanctions on North Korea over its missile launches.

The revisions are likely to require about 300 Japanese-based companies with business ties with North Korea to suspend exports of about 40 materials to destinations that are believed to be linked to the North’s missile program, the Yomiuiri newspaper reported.

It will require the companies to report to the Trade Ministry the details of their exports of targeted materials, including large trucks, titanium alloys and carbon fiber, the Yomiuri said.

Japan is also considering banning cash remittances and freezing North Korean assets in the country.

From Yonhap:

Chinese bank said to freeze N.K. accounts for currency counterfeiting

North Korea is suspected of having printed fake Chinese currency, which prompted the Bank of China (BOC) to freeze all of its North Korean accounts in an apparent retaliation, a South Korean legislator asserted on Monday.

Quoting a number of unidentified U.S. officials, Rep. Park Jin of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) said the freezing of North Korean accounts at the BOC is tantamount to virtual imposition of sanctions by Beijing on the North.

“I understand the North is even more frustrated because this means China is in fact imposing sanctions on North Korea,” the opposition lawmaker told Yonhap News Agency in a telephone interview.

Park has just returned to the country after a three-day trip to Washington along with 12 other ruling and opposition party legislators.

The GNP lawmaker claimed Washington may have been aware of the Chinese bank’s move as early as late last year when its Treasury Department imposed sanctions on a Macau bank suspected of circulating counterfeit U.S. dollars printed in the North.

“I suspect (the United States) did not announce the part related to China considering the sensitivity of the issue,” Park said.

He later claimed Beijing may be working with Washington to crack down on Pyongyang’s alleged counterfeiting of Chinese yuan.

“Following U.S. dollars, North Korea is also counterfeiting China’s currency, the yuan,” Park said during a meeting of the National Assembly Unification, Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee.

The claim, if found true, is expected to further complicate the stalled negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program as the United States has been looking to China to convince the North to return to the multilateral talks.

Pyongyang has been staying away from the talks since November, shortly after Washington imposed sanctions on the Macau bank, Banco Delta Asia.

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DPRK super notes are of super quality

Saturday, July 22nd, 2006

From the New York Times (via NK Zone):

The counterfeits were nearly flawless. They featured the same high-tech color-shifting ink as genuine American bills and were printed on paper with the same precise composition of fibers. The engraved images were, if anything, finer than those produced by the United States Bureau of Engraving and Printing. Only when subjected to sophisticated forensic analysis could the bills be confirmed as imitations.

Counterfeits of this superior sort — known as supernotes — had been detected by law-enforcement officials before, elsewhere in the world, but the Newark shipment marked their first known appearance in the United States, at least in such large quantities. Federal agents soon seized more shipments. Three million dollars’ worth arrived on another ship in Newark two months later; and supernotes began showing up on the West Coast too, starting with a shipment of $700,000 that arrived by boat in Long Beach, Calif., in May 2005, sealed in plastic packages and wrapped mummy-style in bolts of cloth.

In the weeks and months that followed, federal investigators rounded up a handful of counterfeiting suspects in a series of operations code-named Royal Charm and Smoking Dragon. This past August, in the wake of the arrests, Justice Department officials unsealed indictments in New Jersey and California that revealed that the counterfeits were purchased and then seized as part of an operation that ensnared several individuals accused of being smugglers and arms traffickers, some of whom were suspected of having connections to international crime rings based in Southeast Asia.

The arrests also prompted a more momentous accusation. After the indictments were released, U.S. government and law-enforcement officials began to say in public something that they had long said in private: the counterfeits were being manufactured not by small-time crooks or even sophisticated criminal cartels but by the government of North Korea. “The North Koreans have denied that they are engaged in the distribution and manufacture of counterfeits, but the evidence is overwhelming that they are,” Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes in the Treasury Department, told me recently. “There’s no question of North Korea’s involvement.”

Last September, the Treasury Department took action to signal its displeasure. The department announced that it was designating Banco Delta Asia, a bank in Macao with close ties to North Korea, a “primary money-laundering concern,” a declaration that ultimately led to the shutting down of the bank and the freezing of several key overseas accounts belonging to members of North Korea’s ruling elite. In a public statement, Treasury officials accused Banco Delta Asia of facilitating North Korea’s illicit activities by, among other things, accepting “large deposits of cash” from North Korea, “including counterfeit U.S. currency, and agreeing to place that currency into circulation.”

The counterfeiting of American currency by North Korea might seem, to some, to be a minor provocation by that country’s standards. North Korea, after all, has exported missile technology in blatant disregard of international norms; engaged in a decades-long campaign of kidnapping citizens of other countries; abandoned pledges not to pursue nuclear weapons; and most recently, on July 4, launched ballistic missiles in defiance of warnings from several countries, including the United States.

But several current and former Bush administration officials whom I spoke with several months ago maintain that the counterfeiting is in important ways a comparable outrage. Michael Green, a former point man for Asia on the National Security Council, told me that in the past, counterfeiting has been seen as an “act of war.” A current senior administration official, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of relations between the United States and North Korea, agreed that the counterfeiting could be construed by some as a hostile act against another nation under international law and added that the counterfeits, by creating mistrust in the American currency, posed a “threat to the American people.”

Whether counterfeiting constitutes an economic threat, the issue of North Korean counterfeiting is aggravating diplomatic relations between the two countries. According to some analysts, the freezing of North Korea’s bank accounts helps explain the regime’s decision to launch its missiles on July 4. Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico and a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, visited North Korea last fall, not long after the Treasury Department’s crackdown. When I spoke with him in mid-July, he said that the missile launch was in part a protest of the department’s actions. “When I was in Pyongyang in October,” he said, “my interlocutor raised the counterfeiting issue and the freezing of the assets as a major irritant for the government.” He continued, “The counterfeiting issue, and the crackdown on Banco Delta Asia, is a major factor which is contributing to Kim Jong Il’s posturing.”

How much of a concern should the counterfeiting be? Is it worth adding the issue to an already volatile diplomatic situation? The current South Korean government, which has made détente with North Korea a centerpiece of its foreign policy, has shied away from an open confrontation with the regime over the issue. Even many American law-enforcement officials who are upset that North Korea is counterfeiting nonetheless question the view that the counterfeiting poses an urgent threat. In Congressional testimony delivered in April, Michael Merritt, deputy assistant director of investigations for the Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting the nation’s currency from counterfeiters, said that the supernote was “unlikely to adversely impact the U.S. economy based on the comparatively low volume of notes passed.”

The Bush administration, though, is taking a hard line. In response to a question after a speech in Philadelphia in December, President Bush himself suggested that counterfeiting is among the regime’s gravest affronts. “North Korea’s a country that has declared boldly they’ve got nuclear weapons,” he said. “They counterfeit our money. And they’re starving their people to death.”

Funny Money

In December 1989, while counting a stack of $100 bills, an experienced money handler in the Central Bank of the Philippines became suspicious about one bill in particular. It passed the usual tests for authenticity but still felt a bit odd. The bill eventually found its way to the offices of the United States Secret Service. All counterfeits sent to the Secret Service headquarters, in Washington, are examined under a microscope, scrutinized in ultraviolet light and otherwise dissected to reveal their flaws and shortcomings, as well as the printing techniques used in their manufacture. This information is then cross-checked with a database of all known counterfeits.

As the mystery note underwent the usual scrutiny, it became apparent that this was no ordinary counterfeit. For starters, it was printed on paper made with the appropriate mix of three-quarters cotton and one-quarter linen of real U.S. currency. Making secure paper with this mix requires a special paper-making machine rarely seen outside the United States.

In addition, the note was manufactured using an intaglio press, the most advanced form of currency-printing technology available. These intaglio presses are far more expensive than ordinary offset, typographic or lithograhic presses, which yield inferior counterfeits. An intaglio press coats the printing plates with ink, and then wipes the surface clean, leaving behind ink in the recesses of the engraving. The press then brings paper and plate together under pressure, so that the ink is forced out of the recessed lines and deposited on the paper in relief. While counterfeits made using the intaglio process had been seen on rare occasions before, this note surpassed all of them in the quality of the engraving.

As with other new species of counterfeits arriving in the offices of the Secret Service, the bill was given its own flat-file drawer and christened with a sequential number: C-14342. In time, its remarkable quality earned it its more informal honorific: the supernote. But as soon became clear, the supernote was merely one member of a family of counterfeit notes. Technicians at the Secret Service soon linked it to another intaglio note detected around the same time, C-14403. This counterfeit had a few defects that the note from the Philippines did not, suggesting it was manufactured before C-14342. Nonetheless, C-14342 was soon known by the name Parent Note 14342, or PN-14342.

The Secret Service has drawn up what looks like a genealogical chart of these and related bills, which agents showed me during a visit to their Washington offices this spring. The chart displays the many members of the supernote clan: C-21555, for example, the first “big head” $100 (so-called because of the design of the most recent U.S. bills), which was initially identified in London; and C-22500, a more recent arrival that appeared in Macao. The family, which now has 19 members and remains unparalleled even in the world of high-quality counterfeits, also includes two $50 notes: C-20000, a small-head supernote that appeared in Athens, in June 1995; and C-22160, a big-head version, first sighted in Sofia, Bulgaria.

Thanks to sophisticated tools, including mass spectroscopy and near-infra-red analysis, along with old-fashioned visual inspection, the labs of the Secret Service have established genetic links between the family members. These links are not a matter of resemblance so much as they are an indication of a common ancestry: the notes in the PN-14342 family have been created by an individual or an organization using the same equipment and the same materials, and most likely operating from a single location.

As the number of supernotes multiplied, the question arose: who created them? In theory, only governments can buy intaglio printing presses used for making money, and only a handful of companies sell them. Those facts alone pointed toward government involvement, but for some time there was no consensus as to which nation was behind the counterfeiting. Many of the supernotes surfaced in the Middle East, notably in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon and in Tehran. In 1992, Bill McCollum, a Florida congressman and chairman of the House Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, issued a report accusing Iran of printing the supernotes. The report estimated that the value of supernotes in circulation might eventually approach “billions.”

The Secret Service, however, distanced itself from this accusation. In a letter written in 1995 in response to a Government Accounting Office report on counterfeiting overseas, the Secret Service called the task force’s allegations “unsubstantiated” and characterized its conclusions as being based on “rumor and innuendo.” In reality, evidence was pointing elsewhere.

A Picture Emerges

With a country as closed and secretive as North Korea, information about government activities is hard to come by. But in the late 1990’s, a new source of information arrived in the form of defectors. Starvation, corruption and desperation had prompted thousands of North Koreans, many of them government officials, to flee the country. In 1997, two high-ranking bureaucrats — Hwang Jang Yop, a former secretary of the North Korean Workers’ Party, and Kim Duk Hong, head of a government trading company — sought political asylum at the South Korean Embassy in Beijing. They were the most prominent officials to defect, but they were hardly alone: thousands of North Koreans have fled to South Korea. Many thousands more have escaped to China.

In the international intelligence community, vetting accounts from defectors about activities in North Korea soon became a specialty — as well as a necessity, for the accounts were not always reliable. Raphael Perl, an analyst at the Congressional Research Service who has written extensively on North Korea’s counterfeiting operations, told me that “a lot of defectors or refugees give us information, but they tell us anything we want to know. You have to question the reliability of what they say.”

Nonetheless, the most trustworthy of these accounts, when combined with more traditional intelligence sources, permitted a best guess of what might be happening in North Korea. And as far as counterfeiting was concerned, the picture that emerged suggested that moneymaking had long been a passion for the country’s dictatorial ruler, Kim Jong Il, dating back to the 1970’s, years before he took over the reins of power from his father, the country’s founder and first president, Kim Il Sung.

Today, on Changgwang Street in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, there is a barricaded compound of government buildings. Judging from satellite photos, these are unremarkable, rectangular structures that suggest no special purpose. Yet according to a North Korean specialist based in Seoul whom I spoke with recently, and who has interviewed many high-ranking North Korean defectors, including Hwang Jang Yop and Kim Duk Hong, these buildings are the home of Office 39, a government bureau devoted to raising hard currency for Kim Jong Il. (The specialist was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of relations between North and South Korea.)

While the operatives of Office 39 may well direct legitimate enterprises, including the export of exotic mushrooms, ginseng and seaweed, a substantial portion of the office’s revenue comes from its involvement in illicit activities: drug manufacturing and trafficking, sales of missile technology, counterfeit cigarettes and counterfeit $50 and $100 bills. According to Ken Gause, director of the Foreign Leadership Studies Program at the CNA Corporation, a policy group in Virginia that consults on national-security issues, the activities of Office 39 overlap with those of two other offices that occupy buildings in the same complex. The first, Office 38, manages the money acquired by Office 39, he said, while the second, Office 35, handles kidnappings, assassinations and other such activities.

All three divisions employ the same narrow coterie of elites, and all answer directly to Kim Jong Il, who lives in a villa less than a mile away. The history of the operations of Offices 39, 38 and 35, Gause told me, closely follows Kim Jong Il’s own rise to power through the party apparatus. In the early 70’s, after helping his father purge the ranks of the Korean Workers’ Party of competing factions, Kim Jong Il assumed control of North Korea’s covert operations, mostly involving South Korean targets.

In the mid-70’s, according to defector accounts related to me by the North Korean specialist, Kim Jong Il issued a directive to members of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers’ Party instructing that expenses for covert operations against South Korea be paid for by producing and using counterfeit dollars. Officials in charge of the operation supposedly brought back $1 bills from abroad, bleached the ink and then used the blank paper to print fairly sophisticated counterfeit $100 bills — though nothing close in quality to a supernote. Many of these notes were later used by North Korean agents implicated in attacks on South Korean targets, like the operatives arrested for the bombings of a South Korean government delegation in Rangoon in 1983 and a Korean Airlines jet in 1987.

According to the same defector accounts, Kim Jong Il endorsed counterfeiting not only as a way of paying for covert operations but also as a means of waging economic warfare against the United States, “a way to fight America, and screw up the American economic system,” as the North Korean specialist paraphrased it to me.

In a similar vein, according to Sheena Chestnut, a specialist on North Korea’s illicit activities who has also interviewed several key defectors, counterfeiting was seen as an expression of the guiding idea of the regime: the concept of juche. Often loosely translated as “self-reliance” or “sovereignty,” the idea of juche entails an aggressive repudiation of other nations’ sovereignty — a reaction to the many centuries in which Korea capitulated to its larger, more powerful neighbors. “It appears that counterfeiting actually contributed to the domestic legitimacy of the North Korean regime,” Chestnut told me. “It could be justified under the juche ideology and allowed the regime to advertise its anticapitalist, anti-American credentials.”

By 1984, as North Korea’s planned economy began to fall apart, Kim Jong Il, who by that time was effectively running much of the government, issued another directive, according to the North Korean specialist, who told me he has obtained a copy of the document. It explained that “producing and using counterfeit U.S. dollars” was a means, in part, for “overcoming economic crisis.” The economic crisis was twofold: not only the worsening conditions among the general population but also a growing financial discontent among the regime’s elite, who had come to expect certain perquisites of power. Counterfeiting offered the promise of raising hard currency to buy the elite the luxury items that they had come to expect: foreign-made cars, trips for their children, fine wine and cognac.

Laundering, Wholesaling and Redesigning

Earlier this year, I visited David Asher, a former senior adviser for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the State Department and an outspoken critic of the North Korean regime. In late 2001, he explained to me, Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly asked him to study why the North Korean regime had not collapsed, given that the country’s economy had declined even further over the previous decade, with industrial output alone falling by as much as three-quarters. Former Communist countries had ended their subsidies, Kim Il Sung had died, the country was stricken by floods and famine and the food-distribution system had collapsed. (Party slogans betrayed more than a hint of desperation: “Let’s Eat Two Meals a Day” was one of the era’s more uplifting exhortations.) Yet Kim Jong Il, defying all expectations, managed to cling to power.

“How this was happening was perplexing, given the huge trade gap, even with adjustments for aid flowing into the country,” Asher recalled. “Something just didn’t add up. It didn’t account for why Kim was driving around in brand new Mercedes-Benzes or handing out Rolexes at parties and purchasing truly large quantities of cognac.”

As Asher and his colleagues began amassing intelligence, evidence of an array of illicit activities began surfacing — everything from ivory smuggling to the production of high-grade methamphetamine. And counterfeiting was at the core. “The more we found out about this counterfeiting of dollars, the more we thought it was outrageous,” Asher told me. These activities provided what Asher calls “an alternative framework for existence” and “the palace economy of Kim Jong Il.”

In the spring of 2003, the State Department established the Illicit Activities Initiative, an interagency effort designed to investigate and counter North Korea’s criminal activities, and appointed Asher coordinator. The department began to systematically collect a variety of forensic and other evidence gathered by its own investigators, the Secret Service and elements of the intelligence community linking North Korea to the supernotes. (Asher declined to comment on the nature of the evidence, most of which remains classified.)

In addition, the department put together circumstantial evidence of North Korean counterfeiting that had been accumulating for more than a decade. In 1994, for example, authorities in Hong Kong and Macao apprehended five North Korean diplomats and trade-mission members carrying about $430,000 in bills that turned out to be counterfeits of the supernote variety. Additional North Korean diplomats, including an aide close to Kim Jong Il who was attached to Office 39, were caught trying to launder millions of dollars worth of supernotes over several years, prompting an increased scrutiny of North Korea’s diplomatic and trading missions.

Thwarted, the regime seems to have changed tactics, harnessing new distribution networks and wholesaling the counterfeits to third parties who would funnel them to criminal gangs. In the late 1990’s, for instance, British detectives began tracking Sean Garland, the leader of the Official Irish Republican Army, a Marxist splinter group of the I.R.A. According to an unsealed federal indictment in Washington, Garland began working with North Korean agents earlier in the decade, purchasing supernotes at wholesale prices before distributing them through an elaborate criminal network with outposts in Belarus and Russia, as well as Ireland. (Garland denies the charges and is currently fighting extradiction to the United States from Ireland.)

Details of the actual manufacture of counterfeit notes also began filtering into the State Department, much of the information derived from defector accounts. According to similar accounts compiled by Sheena Chestnut and the North Korean specialist in Seoul whom I spoke with, the regime obtained Swiss-made intaglio printing presses and installed them in a building called Printing House 62, part of the national-mint complex in Pyongsong, a city outside Pyongyang, where a separate team of workers manufactures the supernotes.

In 1996, frustrated by the high-quality imitations of its currency in worldwide circulation, the United States government redesigned the money for the first time since 1928. Out went the old-fashioned symmetrical designs, replaced by the big-head notes. Almost everything about the new design was aimed at frustrating potential counterfeiters, including a security thread embedded in the paper, a watermark featuring a shadow portrait of the figure on the bill and new “microprinting,” tiny lettering that is hard to imitate. The most significant addition was the use of optically variable ink, better known as O.V.I. Look at the bills in circulation today: all 10’s, 20’s, 50’s and 100’s now feature this counterfeiting deterrent in the denomination number on the lower-right-hand corner. Turn the bill one way, and it looks bronze-green; turn it the other way, and it looks black. O.V.I. is very expensive, costing many times more than conventional bank-note ink.

A Swiss company named SICPA is the major manufacturer of O.V.I., and the United States purchased the exclusive rights to green-to-black color-shifting ink in 1996. Other countries followed, purchasing color-shifting inks of different colors for their own currency. One of the first countries to do so, interestingly enough, was North Korea, whose currency, the won, counterfeiters ignore. North Korea purchased O.V.I. from SICPA that shifts from green to magenta. For the purposes of counterfeiting American currency, it would be a smart choice: magenta is the closest color on the spectrum to black. “The green-to-magenta ink can be manipulated to look very close to green-to-black ink,” Daniel Glaser of the Treasury Department told me. “They took this stuff the same year we went to O.V.I.” According to Glaser, the North Koreans managed to fiddle with the new ink, obtaining an approximation of the O.V.I. on the bills.

Though there is some dispute on the timing, the first counterfeit big-head supernotes might have arrived on the market as early as 1998. Like the earlier generation of supernotes, the big-head imitations show an ever-growing attention to detail. “They would certainly fool me,” said Glaser, who points out that the “defects” of the supernote are arguably improvements. He recalled looking at the back of a $100 supernote under a magnifying glass and noticing that the hands on the clock tower of Independence Hall were sharper on the counterfeit than on the genuine.

From all accounts, superb quality is a feature of much North Korean contraband: methamphetamine of extraordinarily high purity; counterfeit Viagra rumored to exceed the bona fide product in its potency; supernotes. It’s an impressive product line for a regime that can barely feed its people. When I discussed this with Asher, he let out a sigh. “I always say that if North Korea only produced conventional goods for export to the degree of quality and precision that they produce counterfeit United States currency, they would be a powerhouse like South Korea, not an industrial basket case.”

The Threat

How many supernotes are in circulation, and what sort of provocation do they represent?

Most government officials interviewed for this story declined to give an estimate, but several, including Michael Merritt of the Secret Service, noted that his agency has removed $50 million worth of supernotes from circulation. That is a far cry from the “billions” predicted by Representative Bill McCollum’s task force in the early 1990’s, and while it may still sound like a lot, it is insignificant relative to the $12 trillion dollar American G.D.P.

When supernotes are discovered in a smaller foreign economy that makes use of American currency, they can cause a local crisis of confidence in the dollar (this has happened in Taiwan and Ireland, for instance). But in the United States, the economic threat is minimal. For this reason, many analysts, particularly those outside the administration, like Raphael Perl of Congressional Research Service, express concern about making the issue into a diplomatic crisis. Perl, who agrees that the North Koreans are behind the counterfeiting, told me that because American government officials often view the violation of the currency as “a matter of national honor,” there is “an emotional factor that could get blown out of proportion.” In the process, he argued, counterfeiting can become conflated with other, more pressing problems posed by the North Korean regime, like its nuclear threat.

This conflation may also be deliberate. According to Kenneth Quinones, who was the North Korea country director in the State Department in the 1990’s, hawks in the current administration may be trying to use the counterfeiting issue to impede negotiations with the regime over its nuclear program. Critics of this approach note that the freezing of the North Korean bank accounts took place in the same month that participants in the six-party talks, the multination negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program, hammered out an agreement that the regime would abandon its nuclear-weapons program. North Korea soon reneged on its promise to abandon its nuclear program and has since refused to rejoin the talks until the United States lifts the designation on Banco Delta Asia. The hawks, Quinones told me, “are attempting to use these sanctions” to help “bring down the regime.”

The senior administration official interviewed for this article dismissed that claim. “The notion that there was a grand conspiracy by hard-liners is just wrong,” he told me. “It’s not accurate. This was done as a law-enforcement action by appropriate U.S. government agencies based on the facts of the case.”

Even if the counterfeiting is not worthy of being a diplomatic issue unto itself, the fact that North Korea is counterfeiting may still serve as a grim reminder of the difficulty of good-faith negotiations with North Korea. Just consider that the supernotes that were seized by law-enforcement officials in New Jersey and California arrived in the United States while the six-party talks were going on. Asher, for one, was stunned by the audacity of the regime. “If they’re going to counterfeit our currency the entire time they’re engaged in diplomatic negotiations, what does that say about their sincerity?” he asked me. “How can they want normalization with a country whose currency they’re counterfeiting? How can they expect it?”

However the diplomatic standoff is resolved, Asher said that he believes North Korea won’t continue to counterfeit much longer. Next year, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing is issuing an updated version of the $100 bills. The notes will be expensive to manufacture, requiring the purchase of a new set of presses at a cost that Asher estimated in the “hundreds of millions” of dollars. The Treasury Department characterizes the next generation of notes as part of a routine redesign that it will undertake on a regular schedule every decade. But Asher has no illusions as to the timing. “It might be a routine update,” he said, “but it’s a routine update that’s being instigated by one country: North Korea.”

Stephen Mihm teaches history at the University of Georgia. He is at work on two books about the history of counterfeiting in the United States, one to be published by Harvard University Press and the other by HarperCollins.

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