North Korean Economy Watch

From the Korea Times:
Andrei Lankov
9/10/2006

Recently I was talking to a Westerner who has been working in Pyongyang for quite a long time. Describing the recent changes, he said: “Once upon a time, one had to come back from an overseas trip with a truckload of cigarettes. Now my North Korean colleagues want me to bring movies, especially tapes of South Korean TV dramas.’’

Indeed, North Korea is in the middle of a video revolution which is likely to have a deep impact on its future.

What killed Soviet-style socialism? In the final analysis, it was its innate economic inefficiency. The state is a bad entrepreneur, and the entire history of the 20th century testifies to this. The capitalist West outproduced and outperformed the communist East, whose countries were lagging behind in many regards, including living standards.

Thus, the communist governments had to enforce the strict control of information flows from overseas. There were manifold reasons to do so, but largely this was done exactly because the rulers did not want commoners to learn how vastly more prosperous were people of similar social standing in the supposedly “exploited’’ West.

But people learned about it eventually, and once it happened, the fate of state socialism was sealed.

In the USSR and other countries of once communist Eastern Europe, uncensored information was largely provided by a short-wave radio broadcast. The BBC, the Voice of America and Freedom Radio were especially popular. The USSR was a more liberal place than North Korea, so Soviet citizens could easily buy radio sets in shops.

As far as I know, Moscow never considered a ban on short-wave radio sets in peacetime-perhaps, because in a vast country such a measure would prevent a large part of population hearing the news. The government occasionally resorted to jamming, but it was not always efficient as it could only work around major cities.

In North Korea, where the radio sets are sold with pre-fixed tuning, their role is less prominent even if some North Koreans do listen to foreign broadcasts.

However, North Koreans found another way to access foreign media. If the Soviet Union was brought down by the short-wave radio, in North Korea the corresponding role is likely to be played by videotape.

As with many other great social changes, this one began with a minor technological revolution. DVD players have been around for quite a while, but around 2001 their prices went down dramatically. Northeast China was no exception. Local Chinese households began to purchase DVD players, and this made their old VCRs obsolete. The Chinese market was instantly flooded with very cheap used VCRs that could be had for $10 or $20.

Many of these machines were bought by smugglers who transported the goods across the porous border between North Korea and China. They were re-sold at a huge premium, but still cost but some $30 to $40.

This made VCRs affordable to a large number of North Korean households. In the 1990s, they would have to pay some $200 for a VCR-a prohibitive sum with the average monthly salary hovering around $5. A $35 VCR is within reach of many (perhaps, most) North Korean households, even if they have to save a lot to afford one.

Against the dull background of the official arts, the VCRs were a vehicle for accessing good entertainment. Needless to say, people do not buy these expensive machines to watch the “Star of Korea,’’ a lengthy biopic about the youth of the Great Leader! Since the only major producer of Korean language shows is South Korea, it is only natural that most programs come from Seoul via China. The South Korean soaps are a major hit.

In a sense, the much-talked “Hallyu’’ or “Korean Wave,’’ a craze for all things Korean across East Asia, is a part of North Korean life as well. Young North Koreans enthusiastically imitate the fashions and parrot the idioms they see in South Korean movies. And this does not bode well for the regime’s future.

Of course, the moviemakers did not deliberately pursue any political goals, and their plots involve the usual melodramatic stories of love, family relations and escapist adventure. They are not even produced with a North Korean audience in mind. But the movies reflect the life of South Korea, and this image is vastly different from what the official North Korean media say.

I do not think that the North Koreans take what they see in the movies at face value. They know that their own movies grossly exaggerate the living standards in their county, so they expect moviemakers from other countries, including South Korea, to do the same.

Thus, they hardly believe that in the South everybody can eat meat daily or that every Seoul household has a car. Such an improbable affluence is beyond their wildest dreams.

But there are things that cannot be faked _ like, say, the Seoul cityscape dotted with high-rise buildings and impressive bridges. It is gradually dawning on the North Koreans that the South is not exactly the land of hunger and destitution depicted in their propaganda.

It became cool to look Southern and behave like Southerners do. This is yet another sign of coming change, and I do not think that these changes are likely to be as smooth as many people in Seoul would like them to be.